Kevin Davies
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Mondays are usually slower days in baseball as a lot of teams are enjoying a much-needed rest day. However, there are 24 teams taking the diamond tonight, which means it’s still a busy day. I’m going for my 3rd straight MLB parlay win as I cashed +899 and +405 wins last week, so without further ado, let’s get right into it! But make sure you also read our MLB picks for all of today’s big games.
Nationals ML (+128)
Cubs ML (+108)
Phillies -1.5 (+114)
MLB parlay odds: +914
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Washington Nationals ML over Miami Marlins (+128)
Last night’s game between these divisional foes turned into a softball score. 21 runs were scored as the Nats overcame a 7-0 deficit to win by 3. As for tonight, the game should feature fewer runs since Jake Irvin is on the mound for the Nationals. Irvin had a 3.13 ERA after his first 4 starts of the year, but his ERA soared through the ceiling after the Dodgers shelled him in his last outing. To be fair, Irvin faced the star-studded Dodgers in back-to-back starts, and the offense will always have the advantage when facing the same pitcher the second time. The bottom line is I’m still high on Irvin.
A few seasons ago, Trevor Rogers was one of my favorite pitchers to back. However, a lot has changed since his All-Star season in 2021. Most notably, his pitches aren’t as effective as they used to be. In 2021, he ranked in the 95th percentile in fastball run value and 91st in offspeed run value. Through his first few starts in 2024, his fastball is still solid as it ranks in the 92nd percentile, but he ranks in the 6th percentile in breaking ball run value and 1st percentile in offspeed run value. Hitters are smashing his changeup and slider, and the Nats should be able to continue that trend on Monday.
Chicago Cubs ML over New York Mets (+108)
The Cubs were featured on Sunday Night Baseball in Boston, Massachusetts, but now travel to New York on a sour note. Boston mounted a 9th-inning rally to win the game and series for the Red Sox. Chicago’s next stop is Queens for a 4-game set against the Mets, and the Cubbies will start the series with Jameson Taillon on the bump. Taillon has made only 2 starts this season, but he’s looked sharp in both outings as he’s surrendered 2 earned runs and 10 hits in 10.2 innings. His command seems to be improved and he’s avoiding hard-hit contact.
Luis Severino was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season. It just felt like no matter what he did, the ball always ended up in the outfield bleachers. In the offseason, he stayed in New York but switched teams for a new setting. So far, that change has worked wonders since he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate in 5 starts. However, I’m still not completely sold on Severino. He’s allowing a .270 batting average and .343 on-base percentage in 3 starts at home. At plus-money odds, I’m taking a shot on the Cubbies to bounce back from their primetime loss.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Los Angeles Angels (+114)
The Phillies are red-hot right now. Philly has won 4 games in a row, which includes a 3-game sweep over the Padres. The pitching staff has been spectacular and the lineup is finally looking dangerous. On the mound tonight is Cristopher Sanchez, a southpaw who has allowed only 1 earned run in 3 consecutive outings. Perhaps even more impressive than that is Sanchez owns a 25.5% strikeout rate and ranks in the 98th percentile in ground-ball rate. The lefty is getting a lot of whiffs, and when the hitters make contact, it’s usually weak contact on the ground. That should be a great combination against an Angels lineup that ranks top 10 in strikeout rate against lefties.
Countering Sanchez will be Griffin Canning, a right-hander who has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park. Through 5 starts, Canning has a 7.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a .274 xBA. He’s also allowed 5 home runs in just 24 innings, and the majority of that damage has come against his fastball. Canning’s fastball has been his weakness this season, and it also happens to be his primary pitch. Hitters have a .346 batting average and a .808 slugging percentage against his four-seam fastball. The Phillies hunt fastballs, and that should lead to the visitors securing a multi-run win.
Read our full Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels predictions
