Sunday marked the end to the opening series of the MLB season. That means Monday is the start to a new week and a new series, and there are plenty of great matchups with which to work. I have looked through today’s MLB slate and have found 3 picks that combine for a +987 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all 15 games, but now let’s get into my mega parlay for Monday.
Mets ML (+110)
Rangers -1.5 (+130)
Diamondbacks ML (+125)
Parlay odds: +987
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New York Mets ML (+110) over Milwaukee Brewers
With the team that the Mets have built this season, they are always worth a look when they are at plus odds. New York is coming off of a series win in Miami and will travel to Milwaukee for the 2nd series of the year. Unfortunately, they will be at a pitching disadvantage. Freddy Peralta has been excellent for the Brewers in the last few seasons, and his mix of offspeed pitches with a lively fastball has powered him to success. However, he does have his faults — like being wild, which has led to a high walk rate and some long innings. Since Peralta pitches for the strikeout, he tends to have long at-bats and longer innings. If Peralta can’t complete 6.0 innings, the Mets have a great chance of winning the second half of the game and completing the upset.
Carlos Carrasco will make his first start of the season against a below-average Brewers offense. Milwaukee has a solid top of the order with Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Willy Adames, but the talent level drops off quickly after that. Milwaukee scored 12 runs in its series against the Cubs, but 5 of the runs came in 1 inning — which was their only display of situational hitting in the entire series. Even with Peralta on the mound, the Brewers aren’t a balanced enough team to be the favorites. I’ll take my chances with the Mets.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for Monday
Texas Rangers -1.5 (+130) over Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore’s first series of the year was an emotional roller-coaster. The Orioles won on Opening Day 10-9 after nearly squandering a 6-run lead. Saturday’s game started the same, but an error on a routine play in the bottom of the 9th led to a walk-off win for Boston. In summary, the Orioles’ pitching is worrisome. It won’t get any easier for Baltimore on Monday, as it travels to Arlington to face the Rangers — who have scored 29 runs in 3 games. Kyle Bradish will get the nod for the Orioles, and his 2022 campaign was a tale of 2 seasons. He posted a 7.38 ERA in the first half of the year and a 3.28 ERA after the all-star break. Although Bradish improved throughout the season, his weakness stayed the same. He threw his fastball for nearly 50% of pitches, and opponents had a .321 batting average with a .300 xBA. Bradish found success in his offspeed pitches, but he was loyal to a fault to his fastball.
To no surprise, leaving the most hitter-friendly park was great for Jon Gray’s pitching numbers. Globe Life Field became home sweet home to Gray, as he posted a 4-1 record with a 3.35 ERA paired with a 0.954 WHIP. Opponents hit just .206 against Gray in Texas compared to .231 when he started on the road. And he is fortunate enough to be backed by the hottest offense in the league after the first series, as the Rangers have a .343 batting average and .966 OPS. The Rangers are seeing a beach ball for a baseball at the plate, so I think they can win by several runs on Monday.
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Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+125) over San Diego Padres
There are plenty of emerging prospects on the Diamondbacks, like Corbin Carroll, but Ryne Nelson deserves more chatter. The 25-year-old made 3 starts when he was called up last September, and he finished with 3 earned runs and 9 hits allowed in 18.1 innings. To make it even more impressive, the 3 starts were against the Padres twice and the Dodgers — 2 teams that have plenty of offensive firepower. Nelson’s release point is nearly above his head as his motion is very over the top, and that has allowed his fastball to have 22% more vertical movement than the average fastball. Add in his curveball that’s nearly 20 MPH slower than his fastball, and you have a nasty 1-2 combination.
The Padres will be countering with their own young prospect, Ryan Weathers. But unlike Nelson, Weathers has yet to prove himself at the MLB level. The 23-year-old appeared in 30 games in 2021 and had a 5.32 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 94.2 innings. The stats that jump off the page from that year are 30 walks and 20 home runs allowed. That led to a smaller role in 2022, as he reportedly tried to make some changes to his motion and only appeared in 3.2 innings last year. That take us to a rough 2023 spring training for Weathers, who allowed 17 hits, including 5 home runs, with 6 walks in 14.2 innings. The lefty is wild and vulnerable to the home run ball, which makes him a dangerous option to have on the mound. Arizona’s offense was outmatched in Los Angeles, but I think the Diamondbacks have a great chance at getting win #3 on Monday.
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