Kevin Davies
Show Bio
It was an exciting weekend of baseball with plenty of close games and action. Today, teams begin their next series. With only a month and a half left in the regular season, every game matters from here on out. I’ve crafted a 3-leg MLB parlay for today that pays out at over 9/1 odds at Bet365. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also see our MLB picks for all the big games on Monday, August 12.
Astros -1.5 (+140)
Rangers vs Red Sox Over 9.5 (-115)
Royals ML (+124)
MLB parlay odds: +905
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Houston Astros -1.5 over Tampa Bay Rays (+140)
Framber Valdez nearly did it. He took a no-hitter into the bottom of the 9th before Corey Seager broke up the no-no by launching a 2-run home run into the bleachers. Still, it was an incredible outing by the lefty who had the Texas lineup locked down for 8 full innings. His sinker was getting plenty of ground balls and his curveball was getting plenty of swings and misses.
Valdez seems to have found his rhythm after his horrendous performances in June, and the all-star break might have been just what he needed to reset. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in 4 starts since the break. Valdez has limited hitters to a .149 batting average and a stunning .198 xBA to pair with a 30% strikeout rate in that 4-start span. He’s heating up at the perfect time considering the Astros are in the midst of a second-half surge. At this good of odds, I’m willing to take Houston on the run line — especially since the Astros get all 9 at-bats.
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-115)
The ball was flying at Fenway Park this weekend. Boston’s series with the Astros turned into a slew of high-scoring games as there were 12, 9, and 12 runs scored in the 3 games. The Red Sox offense has been on a tear recently while their starting pitching has been horrendous, and that has made the over a great play during their games.
On Monday night, the Red Sox will turn to Brayan Bello, their young right-hander who has had a very mediocre season thus far. He’s allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and the all-star break didn’t seem to help. He’s posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in 4 starts and has allowed a .267 xBA with a ridiculous 48% hard-hit rate in the second half of the season. As for his counterpart, Tyler Mahle will make his 2nd start of the season. Mahle is coming off Tommy John surgery and was solid in his season debut against the Astros. However, he didn’t get a lot of swings and misses. I’m willing to back the bats at Fenway and take the over in the series opener.
Read our full Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox prediction
Kansas City Royals ML over Minnesota Twins (+124)
There are less than 2 months left in the regular season and the Royals are on the cusp of advancing to the postseason. The American League Wild Card race is going to come down to the wire and the Royals are one of the teams fighting for a spot. After adding Michael Lorenzen to the rotation at the deadline, the Royals have a very balanced pitching staff and a solid bullpen group. However, the strength of the team is the lineup.
Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have been phenomenal at the plate and if it weren’t for Aaron Judge, Witt Jr. would be the clear-cut MVP favorite. The Kansas City lineup will take on Pablo Lopez in the series opener and he’s been struggling this season. Lopez was as dependable as they came in 2023, but he’s been a lot worse this year since he has his highest ERA since 2019. The Royals have the pitching advantage with Brady Singer on the mound and have the much-hotter lineup at the moment, so I’m backing the underdogs on Monday.
