Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
We’re one full calendar month into the Major League Baseball season and the rule changes have added more excitement and cut down game time. Monday brings us an 8-game slate that begins with a double-header in New York between the Mets and Braves and wraps up in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and Phillies. I’ve turned my 3 favorite picks today into a parlay that pays out at +885 at BetMGM.
Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for today.
Nationals ML (+115)
Guardians vs Yankees Under 8.5 (-110)
Phillies ML (+140)
Parlay odds: +885
All of today’s biggest games are available to bet with BetMGM, the premier destination for online sports betting. New customers can earn themselves a $1,000 deposit bonus by signing up right now! Click here to lock in this great sign-up offer.
Washington Nationals ML (+115) over Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season after jumping out to a 12-7 record. Since then however, Chicago has cooled off, going 2-6 over the past 10 days. They’ll have Drew Smyly on the hill tonight and he’s been off to a spectacular start, pitching to a 3.21 ERA and an even better 2.38 xERA. After a rough debut against the Reds where Smyly allowed 6 earned runs on 9 hits, he’s bounced back to only allow 4 earned runs on 11 hits combined over his next 4 starts.
The Nationals turn to a productive left-hander of their own when MacKenzie Gore takes the mound for his 6th start of the year. It’s been a complete turnaround for the 24-year-0ld, who owns a 3.00 ERA a season after pitching to a 4.50 ERA and a 5.21 xERA. Gore went from a pitcher who was nearly last in every advanced metric last season to someone who’s near the top of every advanced metric this season. His strikeout rate jumped from 23.3% to 31.5% and his xSLG is down at .292. Walks are still a concern at 14.4%, but it hasn’t come back to bite him yet. While the Nationals rank 3rd in batting average against left-handed pitching and the Cubs 3rd in OPS, I give the advantage to Gore and the Nationals. Gore has better strikeout stuff and has really turned himself into a ground ball pitcher with 53.3% of balls hit in play staying on the ground. I think Gore can stay away from any big innings from the Cubs, so I’ll back the Nats here.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Under 8.5 (-110)
Playing the under against 2 starting pitchers with ERA’s north of 5 runs may seem like a crazy idea but hear me out. The Yankees are in a massive slump at the moment. Since April 21, New York is 3-7 and only scored 4 runs or more twice over that span. If you take away their 12-6 win over the Twins on April 26, they’ve scored only 16 runs in their other 9 games combined. Don’t get me wrong, Cal Quantrill hasn’t been great for the Guardians so far but this is also the same guy that went 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA last season. A slumping Yankees’ lineup could turn out to be a great opportunity for him to have a solid night.
Domingo Germán is another pitcher who hasn’t quite found himself early on after giving up 10 earned runs over his past 2 starts while owning a 5.54 ERA. Despite the high ERA, there have been signs of encouragement such as a career-high 30.8% strikeout rate and a chase rate in the 92nd percentile. The Guardians rank 26th in runs scored and are only batting .212 off right-handed pitching so far. So despite neither starting pitcher having great numbers to this point, the matchups are in their favor tonight. Both teams also have top 10 bullpens they can turn to in the later innings, so I’ll play the under in this one.
Need a new sportsbook? Check out SuperBook, which is the top-rated sportsbook in Vegas and has a great new customer offer where you can claim up to $250 as a sign-up bonus when you use promo code “Pickswise”! Click here to join SuperBook.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (+140) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The final game of the day takes place in Los Angeles when the Dodgers and Phillies begin their 3-game series. After a slow start to the season, the Phillies have really picked things up and are 10-4 since April 16, including taking 2 out of 3 against the Houston Astros over the weekend. Taijaun Walker will take the ball for the Phils and is looking for much better results than his last start against the Mariners in which he surrendered 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. For the Dodgers, they’ll go to right-hander, Tony Gonsolin who makes only his 2nd start after suffering a left ankle sprain at the end of March. Gonsolin pitched well in his return, giving up 2 hits over 3.1 shutout innings, but was sporadic at times, issuing 3 walks and 26 of his 65 pitches for balls.
Although Gonsolin may be the better pitcher, Walker and the Phillies should have the advantage tonight as he works his way back. The Phillies are also crushing right-handed pitching, batting .282 off righties as compared to the Dodgers who are dead last off right-handed pitching, batting only .203. I think the biggest advantage lies with the bullpens in this series. The Phillies’ pen has been led by José Alvarado, whose allowed only 1 earned run in 12 appearances and the Phillies’ bullpen as a whole has a 0.83 ERA since April 16. In comparison, the Dodgers’ bullpen since that date is up at 4.44. I think the Phillies have the matchup they want with Walker and the bullpen has been lights out. This is a great price to grab Philadelphia at, especially with how well they’ve played over the past 2 weeks.
If you’re looking to get more out of your bets, then Caesars is the sportsbook for you. It’s the only sportsbook with Caesars rewards AND has a great sign-up offer where you can get up to $1,250 back on your first bet! Click here to sign up.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
