Kyle Lupas
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With many teams using Monday as a travel day, we have a smaller slate to work with tonight. While the slate is reduced, there’s still some intriguing matchups and excellent betting value across the board. I’ve studied the board and picked my 3 favorite bets for a mega parlay that pays out at +870 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at those 3 picks and be sure to read the entire article for my analysis and reasoning for each individual pick.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Phillies ML (-122)
Reds -1.5 (+164)
Blue Jays ML (+102)
Parlay Odds +870
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Philadelphia Phillies ML (-122) over Baltimore Orioles
The Phillies salvaged their series with the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, scoring 4 runs in the top of the 10th inning on Sunday and leaving with an 8-5 victory. Bryce Harper has returned to the field and has been extremely impressive at first base thus far, with a number of outstanding plays. It’s not crazy to think the transition has gone this smoothly – remember Harper predominantly played catcher before the Nationals drafted him as an outfielder. Tonight, Harper and the rest of the Phillies’ defense will be behind left-hander, Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez makes his 8th start while owning a solid 3.06 ERA and has been a reliable arm for the Phillies. His underlying metrics suggest some regression, but he’s shown the ability to work out of jams and keep his team within reach.
Opposite Sanchez is Orioles’ starter Dean Kremer. Through 20 starts, Kremer holds a 4.80 ERA and 5.63 xERA to go with an xBA, chase rate, hard-hit rate, and xSLG all ranking 20th percentile or worse. I believe the Phillies have the upper hand in this matchup, and players such as Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott should all benefit facing a lefty. Baltimore is coming off a huge series against the Rays and I think they could be due for a letdown spot in Philadelphia. Back the Phillies to get Sanchez an early lead in this one and hold on for the win.
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+164) over Milwaukee Brewers
The Cincinnati Reds have not won the NL Central since 2012, but there’s a sense of cautious optimism that exists with this team that hasn’t been seen in year’s past. They’re young, hungry, have great veteran leadership in Joey Votto, and maybe a year or two away from making a serious playoff run. I was in Cincinnati on Friday, and there was an energy and aura in the ballpark that made me believe this team can do something special. The only team standing in their way is the Milwaukee Brewers, and this is a series that both teams have circled on their schedules as it’s the last time they meet for the remainder of the season. The Brewers have exposed the Reds’ youth at times and are 8-2 against them, including a 3-game sweep less than 2 weeks ago.
Despite the head-to-head results, the Reds are starting to get hot again. After a 6-game losing streak, the Reds are now in the middle of a 5-game win streak, sweeping the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Graham Ashcraft takes the ball for his 19th start tonight, and he’s either been disastrous or superb. His month-by-month ERA’s tells the entire story of his season (2.10 in April, 9.21 in May, 10.38 in June, 2.00 in July). Ashcraft is beginning to look how he did in April and has 4 consecutive quality outings to show for it. Meanwhile, Colin Rea is pitching to a 4.96 ERA through 3 starts in July and a 4.64 ERA through 16 starts on the year. The Reds found success against Rea on July 8, scoring 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings, on route to an 8-5 win. Look for the Reds and yield similar results and play them on the run line.
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Toronto Blue Jays ML (+102) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The final game of Monday’s slate comes out of Los Angeles between the Dodgers and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has gone 5-4 since the All-Star break while Los Angeles boasts a record of 6-3. The Dodgers are home favorites tonight, but the Blue Jays have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup when Jose Berrios takes the mound. Berrios has been a difficult case study when considering his underwhelming advanced metrics, but when he’s on, he causes problems for opposing lineups. Berrios is putting together a great season, and with how bad Alek Manoah has performed, the Jays need all they can get from each one of Berrios’ outings.
Through 20 starts, Berrios boasts an impressive 3.39 ERA and looks as sharp as ever over his last few outings. Over his last 3 starts, Berrios has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in 18.1 innings. Berrios is limiting hard contact better than he has in recent seasons, and it’s starting to pay dividends. For the Dodgers, Michael Grove takes the ball for his 10th start and 13th appearance. The results have been much stronger of late, but Grove still owns a 6.40 ERA and an xBA and xSLG in the 13th percentile. The Blue Jays own the 4th highest batting average against right-handed pitching and the 9th highest OPS. This matchup against Grove should heavily favor the Jays and I like them on the road as small underdogs.
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