Kyle Lupas
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With many teams using Monday as a travel day, we have a smaller, 10-game slate to work with tonight. While the slate is reduced, there’s still some intriguing matchups and excellent betting value across the board. I’ve studied the board and picked my 3 favorite bets for a mega parlay that pays out at +850 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at those 3 picks, and be sure to read the entire article for my analysis and reasoning for each individual pick.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Tigers ML (-134)
Angels -1.5 (+152)
Twins ML (+116)
Parlay Odds +850
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Detroit Tigers ML (-134) over Kansas City Royals
This isn’t the sexiest game on today’s MLB schedule, but it’s a game I find tremendous value in. The Tigers may be 10 games under .500 but playing in the weakest division in baseball means they still have an outside chance to make a run and win the AL Central. With 70 games left on the schedule, Detroit is 6.0 games back of the Minnesota Twins and a win streak away from creating some disruption in the division. The Tigers just took 2 out of 3 from the Mariners over the weekend and another series win over the Royals to begin the week could create some momentum moving forward.
The Royals aren’t playing for much at this point and are essentially just in a tight race with the Oakland Athletics for the worst record in baseball. Right-hander Jordan Lyles takes the ball tonight for his 18th start in what has been a dreadful season. Lyles owns a miserable 6.42 ERA and the Royals are 1-16 in the games he’s started in. On a positive note, Lyles is coming off his best outing of the season, but those starts have been a dime a dozen. Lyles has given up at least 4 earned runs in 12 of his 17 starts this season. Matt Manning will toe the rubber for Detroit and he set the tone for a combined no-hitter his last time out. Manning tossed 6.2 no-hit innings with 3 walks and 1 hit batsman. That performance came against a Toronto lineup that ranks much higher than Kansas City in every major offensive category. I’m backing Manning to follow up with another solid performance tonight.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+152) over New York Yankees
There’s been so many swirling rumors around the future of Shohei Ohtani and those aren’t going to die down anytime soon when the Yankees come to town. New York made serious offers to acquire Ohtani before the trade deadline last season, and there are whispers the Yankees are still highly interested. But for right now, Ohtani is not donning the Yankee pinstripes and has actually struggled against the Yankees over his career. In 20 games against New York, Ohtani is batting .186 and has struck out 26 times in 70 at-bats – far higher than his 22.2% season strikeout rate. That being said, Ohtani is 1-for-4 off Yankees’ starting pitcher Luis Severino with that hit being a rocket of a home run.
Severino has largely struggled this season, with a career-high 7.38 ERA and an opposing batting average of .315 through 9 starts. Over his last 7 starts, dating back to June 2, Severino has given up a total of 10 home runs and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of those starts for a 9.48 ERA. With how bad Severino has been, one would assume there’s been a significant amount of bad luck, but his underlying metrics show that’s not the case. His 7.02 xERA and .310 xBA aren’t much better than his actual numbers, and Severino is 10th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, xSLG, and barrel rate. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning is having a respectable year for the Angels, and boasts a 4.62 ERA across 14 starts. While the ERA is a tad bit high, Canning appears to be trending in the right direction and has 5 quality starts over his last 8 outings. On April 19, Canning held the Yankees to 2 earned runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts over 5.1 innings. I’m going to fade Severino and take the home team on the run line.
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Minnesota Twins ML (+116) over Seattle Mariners
The last game I chose to round off this mega parlay comes out of Seattle with a pitching matchup between Sonny Gray and Logan Gilbert. Gray is now in his 11th MLB season and was given the honor of being named to this year’s AL All-Star team due to his strong start to the season. It was the third time Gray’s been named an All-Star (2015 with the A’s and 2019 with the Reds). Gray has been on the top of his game this season and has the 5th-best ERA in the AL at 2.89. Much of this can be attributed to a stellar month of April, where Gray posted a 0.77 ERA over his first 6 starts. Since then, Gray’s month by month ERA’s have been much higher (3.91 in May, 3.95 in June, and 4.50 in July). While Gray has slipped some since his remarkable start, he’s still a top-notch pitcher who has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in 1 of his 18 outings this season.
Logan Gilbert will counter for Seattle, and it’s been another strong season for the 26-year-old right-hander. Through 18 outings, Gilbert owns a 3.66 ERA and career-bests in opposing batting average (.216) and WHIP (0.98). The biggest improvements for Gilbert this season have been his ability to reduce his walks and induce more weak contact. He’s still hovering around league average in hard-hit rate, but 38.5% this season is much improved from prior hard-hit rates of 44.6% and 45.6%. The starting pitching matchup is relatively even in my opinion and both team’s bullpens are top 6 in terms of ERA and FIP. I think Minnesota has more momentum coming into the series and they swung the bats extremely well against the A’s over the weekend and scored 20 runs in the series. Some of that should carry over and it could be the difference in this game. I’m backing the Twins to take tonight’s game and hopefully cash in this mega parlay.
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