Kevin Davies
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It’s one of the smallest slates of the MLB season today. There are just 4 games happening tonight with the majority of attention expected to be on the doubleheader version of Monday Night Football. Nonetheless, there are several exciting matchups happening on the diamond today and I’ve crafted a 3-leg parlay that pays out at over 11/1 odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Phillies -1.5 (+120)
Mariners/Astros alternate Under 6.5 (+148)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+118)
Parlay odds: +1185
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+120) over Chicago Cubs
The end of the regular season is in sight. For the Phillies, they have a few games left before Red October returns and the hunt for the World Series begins. The same can’t be said for the Cubs, who have endured a disappointing season (besides Shota Imanaga). In the sake of trying new things without any consequences, the Cubs will promote Nate Pearson to the starting rotation for his first start of the year and 6th career start in 4 seasons. Pearson is a tall right-hander with a fastball that will light up the radar gun and was moved from the Blue Jays to the Cubs at the deadline. The Blue Jays had high hopes for Pearson, but he could never find his control or place with Toronto.
He earned a fresh start in Chicago in the second half of the season and has made the most of it with a 3.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 16 relief appearances for the Cubs. However, he has yet to throw more than 2.0 innings in an appearance this season. And considering he just pitched 3 days ago, I’m not expecting a deep outing from him. That leaves a lot of innings for the fatigued and weakened Cubs bullpen to fill in. The Phillies are countering Pearson with Aaron Nola, who is coming off a phenomenal start against the Brewers last time out. There’s a clear difference between these pitchers, lineups and teams right now.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Under 6.5 (+148)
All of Houston held their breath as Yordan Alvarez left yesterday’s game with an injury. It’s reported that he’s dealing with a knee injury and will undergo further imaging to determine the severity. If that’s the case, there’s very little chance that Alvarez will play in tonight’s game since the Astros need him healthy for the postseason. That’s just one of the many reasons for taking the under in tonight’s game. The second reason being that Bryce Miller is a fantastic pitcher. The right-hander comes into this matchup with a 3.06 ERA paired with a 0.99 WHIP and has been even better in the last few weeks. He owns a 1.99 ERA with a .179 batting average in 4 starts this month and his most recent outing was very impressive as he held the star-studded Yankees lineup to just 2 hits in 6 innings.
The Astros will counter Miller with their own young right-hander in the form of Hunter Brown. Brown has been fantastic in the second half of the season with a 2.33 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and has limited hitters to just a .227 xBA in that span. More importantly for this bet, he’s been lights out against the Mariners this season. In 3 starts against Seattle, he has held the Mariners’ lineup to 3 earned runs and 13 hits to go with 19 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. The top of Seattle’s lineup will likely feature Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley — and those 4 hitters are a combined 5-for-32 (.156) with 13 strikeouts against Brown. Don’t expect a lot of runs tonight in Houston.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+118) over San Francisco Giants
At this point, the Diamondbacks might be worth the bet on the run line regardless of who they are playing. Their lineup has been incredible in September; they rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+. Arizona has scored at least 5 runs in 5 consecutive games and has a generous matchup tonight against a rookie with a control problem. Hayden Birdsong was forced into the starting role after a plethora of injuries to their starting rotation started to take a toll. He has posted a 4.74 ERA with a 4.75 xERA in 14 starts in his rookie season and the primary cause for concern has been his control.
Birdsong enters tonight’s matchup ranked in the 1st percentile in walk rate and hard-hit rate. Being in the 1st percentile in those 2 categories is an indication that Birdsong gets down in the count a lot and attempts to use his fastball to try and get back into the count but either walks the hitter or gets ripped. The right-hander has faced the Diamondbacks once this season but it was his second shortest outing of the year since the Snakes smacked him around for 2 runs, 3 hits and 5 walks in just 3.0 innings. I like Arizona’s chances of continuing their run at the plate against Birdsong at home.
