Kyle Lupas
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Monday brings an 8-game MLB slate as most teams use today as a travel day before beginning a new series tomorrow. Even with the lack of teams playing today, there’s no lack of betting value. For Monday’s mega parlay I am looking at a pair of favorites on the run line and an underdog straight up winner to close out the day. So let’s get right into it with our first game in Miami. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Marlins -1.5 (+120)
Rangers -1.5 (+130)
Cubs ML (+150)
Parlay odds: +1165
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Miami Marlins -1.5 (+120) over Kansas City Royals
Our first game comes at the 6:40 pm ET slot between the Miami Marlins and the Kansas City Royals. The Marlins completed a 3-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics over the weekend and are winners of 4 of their last 5 games. After sweeping the worst team in baseball, they’ll now play the second-worst team when the Royals come to town. Kansas City is 18-41 on the season with a -75-run differential and hasn’t showed much promise to this point. Meanwhile, the Marlins are playing great baseball and are behind only the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings. Tonight, they’ll send left-hander Braxton Garrett to the mound opposite right-hander Carlos Hernández of the Royals.
Through 10 starts and 11 appearances, Garrett is pitching to a 4.22 ERA – much of which can be attributed to a May 3 start against the Braves in which he allowed 11 earned runs on 14 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. If you remove that start, Garrett’s ERA drops to 2.57 and he’s gone 4 consecutive outings in which he’s gone at least 5.0 innings while allowing 2 or fewer runs.
The Royals will start with Hernández to serve as an opener before turning things over to Mike Mayers, who’s expected to take on a bulk of the workload. Mayers has tossed only 13.1 innings this season, and while he’s been effective, it’s tough to buy in. Last season he pitched to a 5.68 ERA with a 48.1% hard-hit rate which is among the worst in the MLB. I don’t have a ton of faith in Mayers, especially against a Marlins’ lineup that has been clicking. Granted they played the A’s, but Luis Arraez, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, Yuli Gurriel and Joey Wendle all hit .364 or better in the series. I think Miami will score some runs and cover the run line.
You can also read our MLB Best Bets and YRFI/NRFI picks for Monday’s baseball
Texas Rangers -1.5 (+130) over St. Louis Cardinals
The Texas Rangers have sole possession of the 2nd-best record in baseball at 38-20. They not only swept the Seattle Mariners over the weekend, they dominated them in the last 2 games, outscoring them 30-9 in the 3-game series. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are now 10 games under .500 after being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cardinals hope their 41-year-old veteran can get them back to winning as Adam Wainwright takes the ball for his 6th start of the season. It hasn’t been great for the vet, as Wainwright’s 6.15 ERA and 1.71 WHIP are by far the worst marks of his 18-year career. Wainwright has been hit around this season and has given up at least 7 hits in 4 of his 5 outings without making it through 6.0 full innings. His velocity is what you’d expect from someone north of 40 and his .325 xBA is the 2nd-worst mark in baseball.
With how hot the Rangers have been at the plate; this could get out of hand rather quickly for the Cards. Martín Perez takes the mound for Texas and is pitching to a 4.43 ERA after a difficult May. The left-hander had a number of rough outings in May, bringing his then 2.41 ERA at the end of April up to its current number. After a spectacular 2022 campaign, Perez hasn’t found the same level of success in 2023. The silver lining is that tonight he’ll be pitching at home, where he’s been much better. Of his 11 starts, 8 have come on the road and his home vs away splits are night and day. In 3 home starts, Perez owns a 1.93 ERA with 16 strikeouts, as compared to a 5.53 ERA with only 28 strikeouts on the road. I like Perez to bounce back tonight against a struggling Cardinals team.
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Chicago Cubs ML (+150) over San Diego Padres
Our last game takes us to San Diego, where the Padres host the Chicago Cubs to close out their 4-game series. The Cubs have already taken 2 of 3 from the Padres, so San Diego can only hope to split before taking on the Mariners tomorrow. The Padres’ offensive woes have returned as they scored just 1 run in games 1 and 3, and even with all the star power, they’ve been extremely shaky to say the least. They’re hitting .210 against right-handed pitching this season and they’ll have to go up against righty Kyle Hendricks tonight. Hendricks is making only his 3rd start after a right shoulder strain but is fresh off an impressive 5.0-inning performance against the Rays in which he allowed just 1 earned run.
The Cubs are hitting .279 off left-handed pitching and will see Blake Snell, who owns a 4.50 ERA through 11 starts. Snell is coming off a 6.0-inning shutout against the Marlins in his last outing, but I’m still not sold on the former Cy Young Award winner. Walks have been a major concern for Snell, and his 13.7% walk rate is a career-worst. Snell has already pitched against this Cubs’ lineup once this season and it ended in a 6-0 victory for Chicago. Command was an issue in that outing, as Snell surrendered 5 free bases in 5.0 innings. The pitching matchup favors the Cubs and I’m going to fade Snell and the Padres to close out this mega parlay.
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