Kevin Davies
Show Bio
What a weekend on the diamond. It was an exciting few days of baseball that featured walk-offs, big wins, and everything in between. Today begins a new week and new series‘ around the country, so let’s get into my 3-leg parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Blue Jays ML (+130)
Rays ML (+112)
Parlay odds: +1012
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130) vs Houston Astros
There aren’t many spots I like more than Zack Wheeler at home. The ace of the Philly staff has been as good as ever this season and has been lights out since the break. Wheeler has a 1.73 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 4 starts this month against the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Braves and has limited them to a .191 batting average and a .188 xBA. But, the real advantage that Wheeler has is the location. This series is taking place in Philadelphia, and he’s been phenomenal at home this season. Wheeler has a stunning 2.40 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 13 starts at home this year. Plus, he’s limited hitters to a .180 batting average and a .558 OPS in those 13 starts, which has led to him allowing 2 earned runs or less in 11 of those 13 outings. Philadelphia has the edge in pitching tonight, and since their lineup just scored 26 runs in 3 games against the Royals, I like their chances of a multi-run victory.
Toronto Blue Jays ML (+130) vs Boston Red Sox
At the All-Star break, the Red Sox had a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Those chances have dropped drastically since then because their pitching has become the embarrassment of the league. The Boston pitching staff ranks 29th in ERA, 30th in FIP, and 28th in xFIP in the second half of the season. But isolating just their bullpen, the Red Sox relievers rank 30th in ERA, FIP, and xFIP since the break. Their poor pitching is a major cause of their downfall, and it will continue to plague them unless the lineup can score 7 or more runs each game. There is more responsibility on the Red Sox offense now to make up for the terrible bullpen, but I’m not expecting the Boston lineup to break out tonight. Jose Berrios is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA and has limited hitters to a .211 xBA since the All-Star break. The Sox are in a freefall right now, so I’ll happily grab the Jays at plus odds.
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+112) vs Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lineup has been historically bad this season. That led to Seattle adding Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena at the deadline, which hasn’t seemed to help much. The Mariners rank 30th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+ in the second half of the season. It won’t get easier for them tonight since they have to take on Ryan Pepiot and the surging Rays bullpen. Pepiot has been fantastic recently, as he’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 consecutive starts. And fortunately for him, the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks 1st in ERA since the All-Star break. The Mariners haven’t given us much reason to expect big things from them at the plate, so getting the Rays at plus money is hard to pass up.
