Mark Lammey
Show Bio
After defeating the Padres on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball in their last game, the Dodgers increased their league-best record to 75-33. They did just have to place future hall-of-famer Clayton Kershaw on the injured list, but still remain the betting favorites to win the World Series. While it feels as though they have the NL West all but locked up, the Twins are fighting tooth and nail to maintain their lead in the AL Central. Both teams are heading into this series rested, as they each had off on Monday. Although they don’t play each other often, there’s plenty of markets to make this series opener profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Twins +1.5 (-115)
Over 7.5 total runs (-166)
Trea Turner 2+ total bases (-125)
Parlay odds: +507
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Minnesota Twins +1.5 (-115) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Heading out west to take on the Dodgers is a tough task for any team, but the Twins have an opportunity to pull off an upset in this spot. L.A. is coming off an emotional sweep of the Padres, capped off by a nationally televised win. While emotional letdown spots are completely arbitrary, it’s simply a secondary reason to expect a strong performance from Minnesota. After handling the AL wildcard-leading Blue Jays 7-3 on Saturday, they narrowly lost the series finale while covering the run line. However, they lost that game on a controversial interference call at home plate, and with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa resting.
Those 2 superstars will be back in the lineup tonight, as it was deliberately stated that Sunday was just a rest day. The last time Buxton was in Dodger Stadium, he hit the game-winning home run for the American League in the All-Star Game. As for Correa, he has a .341 batting average and .614 slugging percentage against the Dodgers. That’s all great news for Twins starter Joe Ryan. He’s largely lived up to his rookie hype, and should be comfortable heading out to LA as a native Californian. This will be his most challenging start, but he’s maintained numbers well above league average in WHIP, xERA and xwOBA. He’s been strong recently, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. However, that 1 was down in San Diego. Now coming off a 9-strikeout win, Ryan can get his west-coast revenge behind a healthy lineup.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 7.5 total runs (-166)
If the Twins are going to pull off this upset, or keep things close, it’s not going to be by matching the Dodgers’ elite pitching staff. Instead, they’re going to have to do so behind Correa and company. Max Kepler is also back healthy, and lefty leadoff man Luis Arraez has been a stud this season. His 120 hits are tied for the 3rd-most in the American League, and there’s no shortage of hitters in this matchup. Minnesota has been the primary focus for our same game parlay, but that’s simply due to the Dodgers always getting the attention. Their lineup remains as potent as ever, and it doesn’t take long to see why.
There are 3 NL MVP candidates at the top of the order with Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. The fact that they have a former MVP in Cody Bellinger batting in the 9th spot says it all. That embarrassment of riches has led them to the highest-scoring team in the National League, and behind only the Yankees for the overall lead.
While that may sound like bad news for the Twins, they’re no slouches either. They’re the 4th-highest scoring team in the American League, above arguably the 2nd-best team in baseball, the Astros. Keep in mind that’s also with Minnesota having a depleted lineup without Buxton, Correa and others for significant time this season. With those hitters back, and the Dodgers having Chris Taylor back healthy, expect plenty of runs on Tuesday night.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Trea Turner 2+ total bases (-125)
It’s always great when we have an opportunity to target a hitter from the team opposite of our prediction on the side. It greatly boosts our odds, and we’re certainly not doing it just for that reason. Trea Turner has been arguably the best hitter in the league this season. He’s behind only teammate Freddie Freeman for the most hits in the entire league. His 219 total bases is the 5th-most in the National League, just 2 behind Freeman. However, we’re going to target Turner to bounce back from his game on Sunday Night Baseball.
The phrase “bounce back” is used with a bit of sarcasm as he still had a single, stolen base, and scored a run. However, out of himself, Freeman and Betts, he was the only 1 not to hit this prop. He was robbed of an extra-base hit by former teammate Juan Soto. That’s not something opposing pitchers can count on against a guy who is the epitome of matchup-proof. Turner is already the only player with 2 separate hit streaks of 20+ games, and can add to his current one tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1820 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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