Mark Lammey
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The battle for the NL Central lead continues on with this series finale. It’s been a 2-team race between the Brewers and Cardinals virtually all season. Milwaukee was able to hold a lead for quite some time, but the script has flipped recently. They’ve slumped a bit, getting swept by the Pirates and losing a series to the Reds. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were the first team to sweep the Yankees this season. That has these teams separated by only half a game, and making this game all the more important. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Cardinals – 1st 5 innings ML/ML (+140)
Over 6.5 total runs (-235)
Nolan Arenado 2+ total bases (+100)
Parlay odds: +424
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
St. Louis Cardinals – 1st 5 innings ML/ML (+140)
After the Cardinals won the series opener, the Brewers were able to bounce back with their ace Corbin Burnes on the mound last night. That was much needed as they have not looked the same since trading away closer Josh Hader to the Padres. Losing 5 of 6 games to the Pirates and Reds is rather inexcusable. The Cards should be able to expose them once again based on the specific matchup for this game. St. Louis was able to win the series opener against lefty Eric Lauer, and they get to face another today. Brewers starter Aaron Ashby is also a lefty, and a far worse one at that.
The 2nd-year pitcher is now 2-10 on the season after his recent loss in the Reds series. The Brewers have lost each of his last 5 starts, and 9 of his last 10. Ashby isn’t exactly set up for success in this situation, given that the Cardinals have smashed lefties this season. They’re the 3rd-best lineup against such pitching, behind only the Braves and Yankees. They’ve already lit up a true lefty ace in Carlos Rodon for 8 runs, so Ashby should be of no concern. It should be a prime opportunity to allow Paul Goldschmidt to continue adding to his NL MVP-campaign. He and the Cards should be leading after the 1st 5 innings, and by the end of the game.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Over 6.5 total runs (-235)
Let’s transition our logic for a Cardinals win right into our next play. St. Louis’ ability to hit lefties should get the run-scoring started early. Although the opener may not have proved it, Lauer is a more established starter. Ashby is far more inconsistent. That’s demonstrated by his inability to pitch deep into games. He’s pitched 4.2 innings or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starts, including just a single inning against the Giants last month. That game ended with 14 total runs in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks out in San Francisco. That’s also an even larger issue given the Brewers’ bullpen issues since trading Hader.
Goldschmidt and company should be able to take advantage of that, as he’s out to continue padding his stats and become more of a shoo-in for the NL MVP. He opened up this series with a 2-run bomb, and teammate Nolan Arenado followed suit with a homer of his own. Those studs have led the Cards to becoming the 6th-highest scoring team in the league. In fairness to the Brew crew, they had the hottest offense immediately following the all-star break. They have big names themselves in Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez who can rack up a few runs against Cards starter Mile Mikolas. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last 4 starts, which should help this game get over the total.
Nolan Arenado 2+ total bases (+100)
We’ve been banking on Goldschmidt with this prop all season, and he’s been returning us with gold in spades. As much as that’s appreciated, we’re going to pivot to Arenado for this game. He’d be getting all the attention on nearly any other team, and he’s having an absolutely ridiculous month. He’s hit this prop in every August game except for one prior to last night, including multiple games with 7 total bases. He also had back-to-back games with 4 total bases before last night. Expecting just 2 from him against a lefty today almost feels disrespectful.
Arenado has an almost unbelievable .726 slugging percentage against such pitching this season. That’s what he’ll be facing with Ashby, who he’s already had success against. In Ashby’s lone start against the Cards this season, Arenado went 2-for-4 with a double for 3 total bases. Even if he doesn’t hit this prop nice and early against Ashby, he’s loved facing the Brewers in general this season. His .596 slugging percentage against Milwaukee alone should provide plenty of confidence for him to hit this prop in today’s finale.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for today’s action (+1052 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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