Mark Lammey
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After yesterday’s win, the Cubs have now won 4 straight, with 3 of them by just a single run. However, it’s the Brewers that are battling for the top spot in the NL Central. Their loss has them 4 games behind the Cardinals in that regard. While this was the only afternoon game yesterday, it’ll be in the mix with several others. With the season series between these teams so close, 8-6 towards the Cubs, let’s make their 15th meeting a profitable one.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Over 6.5 total runs (-245)
Nico Hoerner 2+ total bases (+115)
Willy Adames 2+ total bases (-120)
Parlay odds: +360
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Over 6.5 total runs (-245)
We’re going to start things out targeting the total rather than predicting a side for several reasons. First and foremost, yesterday demonstrated how hitter-friendly the conditions are in Wrigley Field this weekend. This too will be another afternoon game, so expect more of the same. It’s also largely due to the inconsistencies and untrustworthiness of the starters on the mound. Obviously they don’t account for an entire game. However, when the ball can fly out of the ballpark with a simple flick of the wrist, any team can unexpectedly come out on top.
That was perfectly demonstrated yesterday with 4 different lead changes within the first 5 innings. There were also 11 runs scored within those first 5 innings. As for today’s starter specifically, Cubs Marcus Stroman has led the team to both a win and a loss against the Brewers this season. More recently was back-to-back starts against the league-worst Nationals. While he didn’t allow a run his last time out, he allowed 4 in the start prior. Both of those ended in losses with totals of at least 9 runs.
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta was opposite Stroman for a 5-4 Brewers win to start the 2022 season. However, he was injured for all of June and July, and this will be just his 3rd start since returning. He opened things up losing to the lowly Pirates and lasted just 4.0 innings or fewer in 2 of those 3 starts. Although he has a history of success against the Cubs, he cannot be trusted in his current form either. After watching yesterday’s game, it’s clear that total is the way to go in this matchup.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Nico Hoerner 2+ total bases (+115)
One contributor towards that total should be Nico Hoerner. He’s not one of the Cubs well-known names, but he should be. He had a rare rest day yesterday, before coming into the game in the 8th inning. The young shortstop has 109 hits this season, just 9 behind team-leader Ian Happ. However, he’s done so in 12 fewer games and is batting .300 on the year. We’re also targeting him as that average increases to .429 against Peralta. Better yet, he has multiple doubles against him. While Hoerner is generally a contact hitter, the conditions in Chicago have proven that even barely barreling the ball can turn into an extra-base hit. Feel free to play it safe with the hit prop, but we’re going to get a much better payout going for his total bases.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Willy Adames 2+ total bases (-120)
One guy who certainly rack up the bases on a single hit is the shortstop on the other side. Brewers Willy Adames is 2nd on the team with 170 total bases, behind only big man Rowdy Tellez. However, he’s done so in 16 fewer games, and is not nearly as home run dependent. That’s not to say he can’t go deep in these hitter-friendly conditions, as he has 23 homers on the year. He too has a great matchup today against Stroman. His sample size is even larger, as Adames is 6-for-11 against the Cubs starter. More importantly, he has an incredible 1.091 slugging percentage against him. With that type of efficiency at the plate, Adames should also be a driving force in this game going over the total.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1399 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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