Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the Marlins vs Phillies game at Citizens Bank Park with a decent payout at +400 odds. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Marlins vs Phillies Same Game Parlay.
Phillies ML (-160)
Over 8.5 (+110)
Trea Turner to record a stolen base (+165)
Marlins vs Phillies Same Game Parlay: (+400)
Phillies ML (-160)
Citizens Bank Park is without a doubt the most difficult environment for opposing teams to play at during the postseason and it gives the Phillies major home field advantage. The Phillies took Game 1 by a score of 4-1 but the Marlins are fortunate it was even that close. Philadelphia recorded 11 hits with each batter in the starting lineup registering at least 1 hit. I think the Phillies’ bat’s remain hot tonight as they go up against another left-hander in Braxton Garrett. Through 31 regular season appearances, Garrett registered a respectable 3.66 ERA, but the Phillies managed to score 3 earned runs on 6 hits across 5.0 innings in each of the two times they saw Garrett.
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has also had his fair share of struggles against the opposition, surrendering 12 earned runs across 3 starts and 16.0 innings to the Marlins. Despite the struggles against Miami and the up and down season for Nola, he’s been much more consistent entering the postseason. Nola’s last 2 starts consist of outings lasting at least 6.0 innings while allowing a combined 3 earned runs. Even if Nola were to run into some early trouble, I trust the Phillies’ lineup more than I do the Marlins.
Over 8.5 (+110)
I’m expecting plenty of runs in this game given how many Philadelphia seemed to leave out there in yesterday’s game. Philadelphia has scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 12 games, and scored 8 runs the last time they went up against Braxton Garrett. Garrett is right around the zone, boasting a 4.4% walk rate, but he also tends to give up hard contact, as his hard-hit rate ranks in the 9th percentile. In that same game, the Marlins wound up scoring 8 runs themselves, and they’ve had plenty of success against Aaron Nola. In 16.0 innings against Nola, Miami has put up 12 earned runs. It’s hard to know which version of Nola you’re going to get, but I’d expect the Marlins to at least put up a crooked number facing elimination.
Trea Turner to record a stolen base (+165)
Trea Turner went a perfect 30 for 30 on stolen base attempts this year, and swiped 2 more bags on 2 attempts in Game 1. Turner is obviously good at picking his spots or he was trying to conserve himself throughout the regular season for moments like this. If the latter is true, I’d expect Turner to stay aggressive on the basepaths to get himself into scoring position. This is a great value pick to finish off our 3-leg parlay.
