Mark Lammey
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The Phillies acquired Noah Syndergaard at the deadline, but the starter nicknamed Thor had his debut with the team shortened due to a thunderstorm, ironically enough. He was back on the mound last night, and the Phillies instead withstood the wrath of NL Cy Young-favorite Sandy Alcantara. The Phillies have now won 12 of their last 13 games. They’ll be looking to continue that as soon as possible, with the first game of the day. They’re still right in the thick of the NL wildcard race, while the Marlins are 23 games back in the NL East. Both teams are heading out of town for their weekend series after this game, so let’s breakdown how to play this finale. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Phillies -1.5 (+125)
Edward Cabrera 5+ strikeouts (-186)
Alec Bohm to record a hit (-230)
Parlay odds: +427
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+125) over Miami Marlins
Unless Alcantara is on the mound, the Marlins have been a tough team to support since the all-star break. Even last night they were slight underdogs. They were never overly impressive, but their downfall actually began against the Phillies. It was the series leading up to the all-star break. Philly swept them by a combined score of 16-1 across the 3 games. Even that series opener was against the stud ace Alcantara. Philly should be able to close out this series in just as dominant fashion, as things have only got worse for Miami. That series marked the beginning of them becoming the worst offensive team since that time, as it was when Jazz Chisholm got injured.
While his return is nowhere in sight, Jorge Soler has also been out of the lineup since that previous series. With Miami’s lineup becoming more depleted, starter Kyle Gibson can repeat the performance he put on in that series. He was on the mound opposite Alcantara in that opener. He allowed just 1 run off 4 hits in 6.0 innings of work. He’s also coming off back-to-back wins, one of them over a great Braves team. Gibson and the Phillies took both of his previous wins by a score of 7-2, winning by multiple runs without even getting their 9th at-bat. The Phillies lineup has been mashing, and even got to Alcantara eventually last night. They entered this series scoring 11 and 13 runs in their 2 games prior, and shouldn’t need nearly that many to outproduce a depleted Marlins lineup.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Edward Cabrera 5+ strikeouts (-186)
Miami’s struggles have been almost entirely on the offensive side of things. That issue has nothing to do with the performance youngster Edward Cabrera could have on the mound. The Phillies lineup has been hitting well throughout this winning stretch they’ve been on. However, they are no stranger to striking out. That’s largely due to Kyle Schwarber having the 2nd-most strikeouts in the league with 143. In fairness to him, teammates Brandon Marsh and Rhys Hoskins are also in the top 10.
That provides some great value on a starter that is rather unknown and therefore listed at a solid price for this number. He has just 4 starts this season, but is coming off an 8-strikeout performance. Cabrera also had 9 strikeouts in his season debut against the Rockies, a team that is in the top 10 for the least amount of strikeouts. He also finished off his rookie season last year by striking out at least 6 batters in each of his last 3 starts. While he may not get much run support, Cabrera can at least do his part on the mound.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Alec Bohm to record a hit (-230)
It may seem like we’re really threading the needle here, but this play is not nearly as risky as it may appear. However, it does help boost the odds given the combination of plays we’re going with. The Phillies can get the win while Cabrera strikes out the hitters that are prone to doing so. Similarly, Bohm can put one in play while Cabrera does his work. While Schwarber and company get fanned much too often, Bohm is on the opposite end of that spectrum.
For perspective, Schwarber has struck out 143 times, while Bohm has struck out just 79 times. That has allowed Bohm to rack up 112 hits, the most on the team and 8th-most in the National League. He may not have the home-run power of Schwarber, but he’s far more consistent and hits for average. We only need a hit to cash this prop, so bank on Bohm for a hit just like he had last night.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1067 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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