Mark Lammey
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After sending the Rockies out of town just yesterday, the Braves welcome in a divisional opponent in the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami finally had a much-needed day off on Thursday. They just had a 4-game series against the Dodgers transitioned straight into a series against the Rays. It’s been a tough stretch for them since the all-star break. Their lineup is depleted, but they do have the NL Cy Young favorite in Sandy Alcantara. On the flip side, the Braves are one of the best teams in the league. With such an interesting dynamic, this series opener has plenty of ways to make it profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Braves -1.5 (+128)
Under 7.5 total runs (-164)
Charlie Morton 5+ strikeouts (-330)
Parlay odds: +351
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+128) over Miami Marlins
It’s rather surprising that the Braves are still such significant favorites tonight. That’s because Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara will be on the mound. However, it’s important to keep in mind how much he’s had to carry them this season. He’s coming off back-to-back starts against the league-best Dodgers, with the most recent being a complete game. That was his 4th such game this season. That’s not only more than any other pitcher, but more than any other team. There’s no doubt he’s incredible, but the guy is surely absolutely spent at this point.
On top of all of that is the lack of run support he receives. Even in that incredible complete game, it felt like a miracle the Marlins squeaked out 2 runs to finally get him a win. Miami has scored more than 4 runs just 7 times since the 4th of July. That’s 53 games. They’ve fallen all the way to the 4th-lowest scoring team in the league. That’s a lot of picking on the Marlins, but this play is also because the Braves have been incredible.
They’re the 5th-betting favorite to win the World Series, and have dominated the Marlins this season. They’ve won the last 5 straight meetings, and have a 9-4 record against them. Two of those 4 losses were only due to Alcantara being on the mound. However, those were back in May. With Atlanta becoming far stronger since then and Alcantara getting worn down, the Braves can overcome him and the Marlins after he exits the game on Friday.
Under 7.5 total runs (-164)
There’s been a lot of focus on Alcantara thus far, and rightfully so. Although this game should have the Braves come out on top by the end, it doesn’t mean the NL Cy Young favorite is going to drop off a cliff. This should simply be a case of Alcantara doing what he does, but his pitch count should catch up to him against such a deep Braves lineup. Therefore, I would also suggest considering making a single play for there not to be a run in the 1st inning. However, we don’t want just a single swing to ruin our entire same game parlay.
Along with Alcantara doing his part should be Braves starter Charlie Morton. We’re going to expand on him even further for our last leg, but he’s been working that curveball well lately. His last start was his worst of August, but it was still a strong month for the veteran. He held the Phillies and Mets scoreless, and gave up just 2 runs to the AL-best Astros. Keep in mind he’s now going against an abysmal offense with the Marlins. He also pitched at least 6.0 innings in 4 straight starts which only benefits the Braves bullpen, a relief staff that is ranked as the 6th-best in baseball. Meetings between these teams stayed under this total in 6 of the last 9 meetings, and that trend should continue.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Charlie Morton 6+ strikeouts (-330)
We’re going to cap things off by targeting the other pitcher in this matchup. He may not be getting the attention of Alcantara, but Morton has proved that age is just a number. We’ve seen the Red Sox’ 42 year-old starter ring up 11 Rays recently, so don’t let 39-year-old Morton go under the radar. He opened up August with strikeout totals of 8 and 7, and he was just getting warmed up.
Morton followed that up by striking out 12 Mets and then 11 Astros. Those are two of the best lineups in the league. Now he faces a Marlins lineup that has struck out the 9th-most in MLB. Admittedly, he had just 4 strikeouts against the Cardinals recently. However, they’re a team that has struck out the 3rd-fewest times in the NL. With a far better matchup this time around, count on Morton to have that curveball slicing.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+911 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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