Mark Lammey
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The Dodgers recently secured their postseason spot earlier this week by clinching the NL West. They’ve been absolutely dominant this season, and that includes against the Giants. San Francisco’s season hasn’t been anything like their 2021 campaign, and Los Angeles has been a large part of their decline. The Dodgers have won 10 of their last 11 meetings. With the Giants just trying to inch their way back to a .500 record, let’s break down the best way to attack this series opener. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
Over 6.5 total runs (-185)
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (+105)
Parlay odds: +350
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100) over San Francisco Giants
After the Dodgers clinched the NL West, they rested virtually all of their starters the following day. They even gave a rookie his 4th career start. That’s the only reason they’re entering this game with a loss. They still forced extra innings in that game, and it wasn’t too harmful to their run differential. It’s not just that they’re going to finish the season with well over 100 wins; LA has been dominating teams. Their run differential of 318 is rivaling some of the best in MLB history. We’re comparing them to the Yankees teams of the 1930’s. For some perspective, the next-best run differential this season is 209.
Meanwhile, the Giants are barely on the right side of that number with a run differential of 6. Starter Logan Webb has been a part of the Dodgers increasing theirs, as he’s lost to them by a combined 10 runs the first 2 times he faced them this season. He doesn’t get much help as the Giants bullpen has been abysmal all season. They’re currently the 9th-worst, and that’s an improvement for them. On the flip side, the Dodgers lead the league in team ERA, runs scored, team OPS, and several other statistics. This is a great spot for Dustin May to get in midseason form after returning from his injury last month. There’s no reason to doubt a rested LA team as relaxed as ever after clinching the division.
Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants predictions
Over 6.5 total runs (-185)
Let’s continue on with a more basic leg and use just a slightly alternate total. The Dodgers have proven time and time again that they can cover this total themselves. Their 769 runs scored are the most in the league by far. In fact, only 3 other teams have even surpassed 700 runs. LA has also covered this number themselves against Webb specifically. They began last month by lighting him up for 6 runs in what was ultimately an 8-2 win.
These teams also went over this total in each of their last 4 meetings and 7 of the last 8. The Dodgers won’t get to have their studs like Clayton Kershaw or Tony Gonsolin on the mound either, which means the Giants should be able to contribute some runs as well. May looked incredible in his first 2 starts back this season, but they were against a terrible Marlins lineup. Since then, he’s allowed 10 runs to the Padres across his last 2 starts. Thankfully he has 3 MVP candidates supporting him, but still lends for a high-scoring game.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (+105)
Let’s wrap things up with one of those MVP candidates. It’s likely going to be Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt who wins the award, but Mookie Betts has already won it before. Had he not missed time this season, he’d be a much closer candidate. Even still, his 34 home runs is just 1 behind Goldschmidt, and the 4th-most in the NL. His 34 doubles are just 3 behind him, and overall his .558 slugging percentage is better than guys like Shohei Ohtani.
All in all, his 280 total bases are the 4th-most in the NL. That’s with playing upwards of 18 fewer games than the guys above him. This play is also about his history against Giants starter Webb. He’s hitting .444 against him this season, with a .667 slugging percentage. With that type of efficiency and 2 full days of rest, expect Mookie to get off to a fast start in that leadoff spot.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+915 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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