Mark Lammey
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After the Dodgers took Game 1 by a final of 5-3, the Padres returned the favor in Game 2 — winning by the exact same scoreline. With the series now tied up 1-1, they head down the road to San Diego for Game 3. After having Thursday off to travel, this is now down to a best-of-3 series. Despite the loss on Wednesday, LA still remains the favorite to win the World Series.
Let’s break down Friday’s contest and see if the Dodgers can steal one on the road. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
Freddie Freeman to record a hit (-235)
Mookie Betts to record a hit (-195)
Parlay odds: +310
Here is a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.5 (+130) over San Diego Padres
Most experts would agree that the Dodgers should have no problem winning this series and advancing to the NLCS, but the Padres are doing their best to make it interesting. We have broken down LA’s success against San Diego this season rather often, but it’s still worth repeating. The Dodgers were 14-5 H2H in the regular season, with 13 of those victories coming by multiple runs.
As strange as it may sound, Game 2’s loss wasn’t as surprising as it may seem with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. While the lefty ace has a 2.48 regular season career ERA, it balloons to 4.22 in the postseason. However, the Dodgers faithful should not be concerned; they have one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. They have the luxury of Tony Gonsolin starting Game 3 and he had an incredible 16-1 record this season and will be coming into this matchup with 11 days of rest. He did take time off in September, but LA had the benefit of locking up the NL West early to be extra cautious with Gonsolin. If that isn’t reason enough to take the Dodgers, they will get to hit lefty Blake Snell. He was the starter in the Padres’ loss to the Mets in the wild-card round, lasting just 3.1 innings. Without Yu Darvish or Joe Musgrove on the mound, the Dodgers are clear favorites in this game.
Be sure to check out our Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres predictions
Freddie Freeman to record a hit (-235)
Freeman came through for us in Game 2, just as he has several times this season. However, we’re not targeting him solely for that reason. As one who is a fan of targeting players for bounce-back nights, Freeman rarely needs those. Not only did he have a double and home run in Game 2, but he has also been just as consistent all season.
His 199 hits and 47 doubles led the majors in both categories, and that should continue against Snell. We’re focusing on Freeman in part because has the best history of any Dodgers hitter against the Padres’ starter. Technically he’s tied with Clayton Kershaw with a .500 average against Snell, but obviously we won’t see a Kershaw-Snell. All jokes aside, Freeman has no issues hitting Snell — and lefties in general. Despite being a lefty, himself, he is hitting just under .300 against them. With an even better average against Snell, trust Freeman to come through once again.
Mookie Betts to record a hit (-195)
Along with Freeman, Betts has been very profitable for us this season. He, too, had a double in Game 2 and should have no problem putting one in play on Friday night. His history against Snell actually isn’t as impressive as Freeman’s, but that shouldn’t cause hesitation.
Betts is simply too strong against lefties overall for his slump against Snell to continue. First, Snell was just lit up his last time on the mound and Betts has a .306 average against lefties. Better yet, he boasts an incredible .605 slugging percentage against them this season if you’d prefer to take his total bases prop. Regardless, Betts has smashed the Padres both this season and throughout his career. He is hitting .361 against them this season and .313 against them in his career. No matter if he records his hit against Snell or later in the game, he and Freeman can cash their props in the same inning.
Also keep an eye out for our player props for the NLDS/ALDS action!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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