Mark Lammey
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After yesterday’s Angels/Blue Jays game, we’ve cashed same game parlays 2 days in a row, so let’s make it 3. We have the Dodgers with the best record in baseball, and are the clear World Series favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins are as depleted as ever, and the postseason is all but an impossibility. These teams met last weekend in LA. However, it’s this series finale down in South Beach that will be the featured game to kick off the huge MLB Sunday slate.
Just as ESPN has Sunday Night Baseball, Peacock has been getting the day started with a featured early game. With all eyes on this matchup, plenty of markets are available to start out the long MLB day with profit. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Under 7.5 total runs (-156)
Under 0.5 1st-inning runs (-162)
Julio Urias 6+ strikeouts (-200)
Edward Cabrera 5+ strikeouts (-225)
Parlay odds: +316
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Under 7.5 total runs (-156)
We’re going to target the total rather than a side for several reasons. Firstly, the Dodgers have not been playing with nearly as much urgency on Sundays, whether or not they rest guys. It’s understandable, as they have a 18.5-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. For example, they lost 4-0 to the Royals two Sundays ago. The Marlins kept things close in a 2-1 game last weekend, and even forced extra-innings on Friday. All of that without mentioning the 2-1 upset the Marlins pulled off last night.
They won’t have another complete game from Sandy Alcantara, but it should still be another low-scoring game. The Marlins recently snapped their 23-game streak of scoring 4 or fewer runs. They scored 4 total runs over 3 games last weekend when these teams met. The only reason the opener was high-scoring was due to 9 runs in the 9th inning and later; there wasn’t a run scored until the 6th inning. With lefty Julio Urias on the mound, there’s no reason to expect the Marlins to produce much at all. Their offensive struggles are bad enough, and they’re the absolute worst lineup against lefties.
Of course that leaves the high-powered Dodgers. However, youngster Edward Cabrera has been incredible for Miami. In just 7 starts, he’s 4-1 with a ridiculously low 1.41 ERA. He’s coming off an 8.0-inning shutout performance, and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his 4 starts this month. Three of those 4 starts finished with just 3 runs, while the other saw just 7 total runs. Don’t look now, but the Marlins may have found another future Sandy Alcantara.
Under 0.5 1st-inning runs (-162)
This play shouldn’t be too surprising after breaking down the under for the entire game. There hasn’t been a run scored in the 1st inning of this series yet, so there’s no reason to expect one today. The Dodgers were able to sneak in a couple last weekend, but that big 1st inning was against an unknown in Bryan Hoening. That was just a guy they thrust into the rotation out of necessity. This weekend’s version of that was back in the opener with another unknown, Tommy Nance.
The Dodgers were even unable to score against him, and Alcantara bounced back with a strong 1st inning last night. They have yet to face Cabrera, and the youngster may surprise them. He hasn’t allowed a 1st-inning run during this dominant stretch since returning, including starts against the Phillies and Padres. The focus and concern is on preventing the Dodgers from scoring, as the Marlins pose far less of a threat. Not only are they the worst lineup against lefties, they recently sent power-hitter Jesus Aguilar down to triple-A. Without him, Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler, their lineup is a shell of what it was to begin the season.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Julio Urias 6+ strikeouts (-205)
The theme stays alive as we continue our focus on the guys on the mound. Urias’ advantageous matchup has already been discussed, so let’s break down his strikeout prop specifically. The Marlins have the lowest-OPS against lefties, but it doesn’t end there. Their 298 strikeouts against them may not be among the tops in the league, but they’ve had just 80 games against such pitchers. That average is indeed higher than even the Angels, who have the 2nd-most overall strikeouts against lefties. Now they face a stud in Urias, who has struck out at least 6 batters in all 4 starts this month. He also struck out 8 batters when they faced the Angels earlier this season. With the Marlins being even worse at the plate, Urias should ring up plenty of Miami hitters this afternoon.
We have a Braves vs Cardinals same game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball
Edward Cabrera 5+ strikeouts (-225)
Finally, we’re going to wrap things up with one last prop to help boost our odds. Everything has been correlated, and Cabrera deserves some love. He is quickly going to become a well-recognized name, perhaps after a strong performance against the best team in the league. It’s unlikely he gets the proper run support for a win, but he can certainly do his part. The Dodgers aren’t quite as strikeout-prone as the Marlins, hence the low alternate total. Regardless, Cabrera has strikeout totals of 8, 6, and 7 twice in his 4 starts this month. He also rang up 9 Rockies in his season debut. Although it’s not the largest sample size to break down, trust the young stud to start making a name for himself today.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+990 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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