Kyle Lupas
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The Houston Astros are not going down without a fight, a message made crystal clear last night after plating 5 runs in the first 4.0 innings, making it a short night for future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The momentum has shifted, and even though the Rangers are home for 2 more games, Houston fans made their presence known in Game 3. With the win last night, I like Houston’s chances to even the series tonight and guarantee at least 1 more game in Houston.
So let’s get right into this parlay, which pays out close to 8/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Astros ML (+100)
Kyle Tucker 2+ bases (-110)
Josh Jung 2+ bases (+125)
Astros vs Rangers Same Game Parlay: (+786)
Houston Astros ML (+100) over Texas Rangers
The Rangers may be up 2 games to 1 in this series, but it feels like it could easily be the other way around if not for a Nathan Eovaldi Houdini act in Game 2 where he worked his way out of a bases-loaded 0 out jam in the fifth inning. The Rangers would go on to win 5-4, but they escaped by the skin of their teeth. Game 3 was all Houston, as they took an early 4-0 lead, finishing the game with 12 hits and 17 hard-hit balls. I foresee that offensive success rolling over into Game 4, especially after seeing better at-bats from both Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker who have struggled this postseason. If there’s one thing the Astros did well this season, it was hitting against left-handed pitching, and luckily for them, Andrew Heaney is toeing the rubber for the Rangers.
In 34 appearances and 28 starts this regular season, Heaney posted a 4.15 ERA and a career-worst 1.38 WHIP (excluding 2017 in which Heaney pitched 21.2 innings). Against the Astros, Heaney has excelled by posting a 2.75 ERA across 4 starts, 2 of which were 5.0 inning shutouts. However, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are a combined 23-for-72 against Heaney and it’s been 12 days since he’s last had game action. It’s been 8 days since Jose Urquidy has pitched for the Astros, but his last time out was a massive success. Against the Twins in the ALDS, Urquidy provided 5.2 innings of work while allowing just 2 earned runs on 3 hits. Urquidy posted a 5.29 ERA in 63.0 innings during the regular season, but he appears to be trending in the right direction at the right time. Those 2 earned runs were the only runs Urquidy has surrendered in his last 14.2 innings and he’s always had the ability to limit hard contact (34.0% hard-hit rate). Urquidy and the Astros’ bats are turning it on at the right time, so give me Houston at even odds.
Check out our expert’s MLB best bets for Thursday
Kyle Tucker 2+ bases (-110)
Kyle Tucker has certainly struggled this postseason, slashing .125/.300/.208 with 0 home runs, but there were a multitude of positives to take from his performance in Game 3. No, Tucker didn’t hit the big home run or drive in 4 runs, but he didn’t press at the plate despite entering the game with just 2 hits in 6 postseason games. Instead, Tucker was extremely patient in his at-bats, finishing the day with 3 walks and 2 hard-hit balls, the last going for a double. Not only was Tucker’s approach better, but he has a favorable matchup tonight against Andrew Heaney.
Heaney relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, so much so he throws it 57.9% of the time. Heaney doesn’t have a terrible fastball, but it’s also not an elite pitch, producing a +1 run value. That’s where the value comes in on Kyle Tucker. Not only is Tucker the best 4-seam fastball hitter on his team with a +22 run value, he’s the second best 4-seam fastball hitter in the MLB, behind only Matt Olson, who produces a +24 run value. Tucker is hitting .339 on 4-seam fastballs this season, and I like his chances to do some damage.
Josh Jung 2+ bases (+125)
The bottom of the Rangers’ lineup has been tremendous this season, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why they’ve had so much postseason success. The leader of that has been Josh Jung, who’s batting .355 with 7 extra-base hits and 7 RBI’s through the first 8 games of the postseason. Last night was Jung’s 4th multi-hit game as he slugged 2 home runs while driving in 4 runs. Jung is locked in, and I like his matchup tonight against Jose Urquidy. Jung has yet to get an at-bat against Urquidy this season, but he certainly likes the arsenal of pitches Urquidy typically goes to.
Urquidy has a wide array of pitches he can go to, but his most prevalent are his 4-seam fastball (38.4%) and his changeup (21.6%). The changeup is by far Urquidy’s most dangerous pitch as opposing batters are hitting just .172 against it this season. Jung is hitting .292 against 4-seam fastballs and .293 against changeups this season, Urquidy’s two most used pitches. Jung has been hot all postseason and I’m going to continue to ride with him.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today
