In a shocking turn of events, the Texas Rangers won both games in Houston to take a 2-0 series lead back to Arlington. That puts the Rangers in an excellent position for the rest of the series while the Astros are just one loss away from an elimination game. For Game 3, I’ve crafted an Astros vs Rangers Same Game Parlay that pays out over 7/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rangers ML first 5 innings (-106)
Corey Seager 2+ bases (-120)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ bases (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +710
Texas Rangers ML First 5 Innings over Houston Astros (-106)
It might sound hard to believe, but the Texas Rangers have yet to lose a game in the postseason. They’ve also gone a perfect 7-0 in the first 5 innings. After a quick 2-game sweep of the Rays in the Wild Card, the Rangers swept the Orioles in 3 games during the ALDS and now have a 2-0 lead over the Astros in the ALCS. Similar to the ALDS, the Rangers won the first 2 games of the series on the road. I cannot express how crucial that is during the postseason. Winning on the road is the key to success in the playoffs, and that’s something the Rangers have done well since only 1 of their 7 wins has come at home — that’s insane! In Texas’ only home win of the postseason, they thrashed the Orioles by a score of 7-1 to win the ALDS. And for Wednesday, it gets even more exciting because Max Scherzer is back. It was reported that the only way Scherzer could come back this season was if the Rangers made it deep into the playoffs, and Texas did just that. According to Scherzer, he feels 100% healthy, and Bruce Bochy even admitted that the veteran ace was wearing him down about starting.
Houston, we have a problem. The Astros put out their best two pitchers on extended rest at home and lost both games. That puts Houston in a lot of trouble because Cristian Javier will toe the rubber in a must-win game. Here’s the problem — Javier isn’t the same pitcher he was last season. In 2022, Javier was nearly unhittable and became a cheat code in the playoffs. But in 2023, Javier had a 4.56 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts, which is a drastic difference from his 2.54 ERA and 0.97 WHIP last year. Of his disappointing regular season, would you want to venture a guess as to which team gave him his worst start? If you guessed the Rangers, you would be correct. Texas shelled Javier for 8 runs, 9 hits and 2 home runs in just 4.1 innings in July. I’m not surprised by that result since the Rangers are the perfect matchup against Javier. The Astros starter ranks in the 1st percentile in ground-ball rate and throws his fastball nearly 60% of the time. If you’ve watched the Rangers lineup in the postseason, they hunt fastballs early in the count, and they’re going to get them against Javier. Plus, the Rangers have 27 extra-base hits in just 7 postseason games, so Javier’s inability to get ground balls is going to be his kryptonite.
Check out our full Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers predictions
Corey Seager 2+ bases (-120)
The postseason is where heroes are made, and right now, Corey Seager has been the hero for the Texas lineup. In 7 postseason games, Seager has a .348 batting average with a .559 on-base percentage and a 1.168 OPS. His OBP is ridiculously high from a lot of walks in the ALDS, but he’s yet to record a walk in the ALCS, and I’m not surprised by that. Baltimore’s game plan for Seager was not to let him beat them, so they would work around him to get to Mitch Garver, Adolis Garcia and Evan Carter. However, the Astros understand that putting a guy on base for those three hitters has more often than not turned into a run in the postseason. Instead, Houston has decided to pitch to Seager, and the shortstop has 2 hits in 2 games.
For Game 3, the setting shifts to Arlington, and nobody is more happy about that than Seager. The 29-year-old was unreal at home in the regular season with a .337 batting average, a .707 slugging percentage and 1.113 OPS. In the only home game the Rangers have played in the postseason, Seager was 1-for-2 with a home run. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seager accomplish this leg of the parlay with one quick swing of the bat.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ bases (+100)
Six home runs in 6 games is absolutely remarkable. Yordan Alvarez is single-handedly keeping the Astros in each game with his homers, and I wouldn’t be all that shocked to see another one on Wednesday. Alvarez has been tearing it up in the postseason, going 9-for-23 (.391) with a 1.701 OPS. Of his 9 hits in the playoffs, only one has been a single. The rest have been doubles or home runs. That gives me the confidence that when he hits the ball, it’s more than likely going to be an extra-base hit. Plus, Alvarez has a fantastic track record against Scherzer. The Houston slugger is 4-for-7 with a home run in his career against the veteran ace. And last but not least, in 4 games at Globe Life Field in his young career, Alvarez is 6-for-17 (.353) with 2 home runs and a double.
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