Kyle Lupas
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The Minnesota Twins managed to even the series on Sunday and now take Game 3 back home to Target Field in front of the Minnesota faithful. Expect a good one this afternoon as the Twins play their first home divisional game since 2019 as they host the defending World Series champion Houston Astros. We have a premier starting pitching matchup in store as Sonny Gray and Cristian Javier toe the rubber for their respective ballclubs, and I have a Same Game Parlay ready to go ahead of this Game 3 bout. So keep reading below as I break down all 3 legs of this parlay, which pays out at +539 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
NRFI (-125)
Alternate total under 7.5 (+106)
Twins -0.5 first 5 innings (+102)
Astros vs Twins Same Game Parlay: (+539)
NRFI (-125)
We start off in the very first inning of this ballgame, where I’m projecting a scoreless first inning in Minneapolis. The weather at first pitch is expected to be in the mid-50’s and at least one of these starting pitchers has been nearly unhittable in the first inning this season. That starter is Twins right-hander Sonny Gray, who boasts a 0.84 first-inning ERA this season across 32 starts. Gray has yet to allow a first inning home run this season while opposing lineups are hitting just .168 in the opening frame.
On the other side, we have Cristian Javier, whose season has been shaky at times as he owns a 4.56 ERA across 31 starts. This comes one season after Javier registered a 2.54 ERA in an excellent 2022 campaign. While Javier has been inconsistent and his 5.23 first inning ERA is less than impressive, the Twins have yet to face him in 2023. It’s also important to note that hitters in the Twins lineup are a combined 0-for-15 against Javier and no team strikes out at a higher clip against right-handed pitching than the Minnesota Twins (27.0%).
Check out our Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins predictions
Alternate total under 7.5 (+106)
The second leg of this parlay plays right off the first leg which projects a scoreless first inning. I project this game as being lower scoring in general given the fact both teams have options in the bullpen since they were off on Monday. I’m sensing a quality start from Sonny Gray in this matchup as he’s coming off the best season of his 11-year career. Gray posted a career-best 2.79 ERA across 32 starts and has already held this lineup to just 3 earned runs across 13.0 innings this season, granted those starts came in April and May. Gray has managed to get even stronger since those starts, and has given up 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, including 5.0 scoreless innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Possibly the most impressive stat in Gray’s season has been his ability to limit the longball, giving up just 8 home runs in 184.0 innings – 6 less than the next closest starting pitcher.
While I do believe the Twins can do some damage against Javier, he’s been much better across his final 4 starts of the season (3.05 ERA) and the Twins strikeout more than any other team against right-handed pitching. Each of these bullpens are also extremely talented as they both owned top bullpen ERA’s in the final month of the season. I don’t expect Javier to go deep into this ballgame, but I have no concerns with the Houston bullpen keeping the game within reach.
Twins -0.5 first 5 innings (+102)
Javier may have finished the season on a high note, but Gray has been lights out for about the past 2 months. Gray is inducing ground balls at an extremely high clip (48.0%) and has hardly been taken deep all season. I think this could be an extremely frustrating matchup for a Houston team trying to regain the series on the road against a pitcher who’s had their number. Gray has gone at least 5.0 innings in 29 of his 33 starts this season (including the postseason) and he’s the better of these two starters taking the mound today.
While you can almost expect Gray to deliver 5.0 innings for the Twins today, the same can’t be said for Javier and the Astros. Javier has gone at least 5.0 innings in 23 of his 31 starts this season, but his outs recorded line for today is set at just 12.5. That’s because Javier’s ERA jumps from 4.00 in the first 3 innings to 5.37 between innings 4 through 6. I have some concerns if Javier tries going through this Twins’ lineup more than once, especially when Javier is in the bottom 1 percentile in ground ball rate against a team that hit more home runs than every team not named the Braves or Dodgers.
