Mark Lammey
Show Bio
After a crazy MLB postseason so far, the Astros kept things standard in this series. Houston won the first 2 games of the ALCS, and now the series transitions to the Bronx for the Yankees to have their shot at home field advantage. They’re in quite the hole already, but we’ve seen crazier comebacks happen. There’s already been a pitching change for Game 3, so let’s break down everything going on to make it a profitable matchup. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Astros -1.5 (+188)
Under 7.5 total runs (-162)
Parlay odds: +455
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros -1.5 (+188) over New York Yankees
The Astros had originally listed Lance McCullers Jr. as their starter for Game 3, but have pushed him back to Game 4. That puts Cristian Javier on the mound to matchup with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. If there was ever a time for New York to have the advantage in that regard, it’s this game. However, it provides value on the Astros at the same time.
Cole will be facing the team he lost a World Series with in 2019. There’s no denying that he’s been great in the postseason thus far. However, the playoffs have also been where Cole collapses. His 2 great starts so far have been against the Cleveland Guardians, who are not known as an offensive juggernaut. Let’s also not forget that it was Cole who choked in last year’s winner-take-all Wild Card game against the Boston Red Sox.
Regardless, the Astros have owned the Yankees overall this season. They’ve won 7 of their 9 meetings against them, including a start by Cole in the regular season. Cole pitched well in that game, but so did Javier. This will be a rematch of that game, where Javier had a no-hitter through 7.0 innings. That was the first of 2 wins the Astros had against the Yankees behind Javier, and a third should be on the way today.
Be sure to check out our Houston Astros vs New York Yankees predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-162)
Not only has the season series trended towards Astros wins, it’s also trended towards unders. One doesn’t have to look far to see that either. Each of the first 2 games of this series stayed under the total, which is right on par for their regular season meetings as well. Of the Astros’ 5 wins against the Yankees earlier in the year, 4 of them finished with 6 or fewer runs. Such low-scoring games between these teams shouldn’t be surprising either.
Houston finished the regular season with the 2nd-best overall team ERA, along with the best bullpen ERA. Similarly, the Yankees had the 6th-best team ERA and the 3rd-best bullpen ERA. All of those impressive ranks should be on display with both teams having had Friday off to rest. We also have an identical starting pitching matchup from earlier in the season. When Cole and Javier faced off, they each pitched 7.0 innings in what ended as a 3-0 Astros win. Given the circumstances and the trends, expect another low-scoring game on Saturday.
Cristian Javier alternate strikeout prop
Javier’s strikeout prop still has yet to be listed, so it’s not included in our SGP odds. However, swapping to the Astros money line and including this prop would be our favorite way to play this Game 3. With that in mind, we still wanted to provide you with the analysis for when the play does become and available and we are able to update things accordingly.
We’re going to lean into the low-scoring game play just a bit further. The Yankees have been striking out at an alarming rate and Game 2 was the perfect example. Houston fanned 17 New York batters, silencing their Bronx Bombers nickname. With the Astros striking out just twice, the 15-K difference was the most in postseason history.
Now that the Yankees have struck out 30 times in just 2 games, Javier should look much like his first start against them this season. He recorded an incredible 13 strikeouts during his no-hit bid, and that wasn’t even his best performance of the season. Javier had a 14-strikeout game against the Los Angeles Angels as well. He finished the season with at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last 6 starts and 10 of his last 12, so another strong outing should be in store.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bet for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
