Mark Lammey
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We hit both our Astros vs Yankees and Padres vs Phillies SGPs last night, so let’s keep things rolling. Keeping things rolling is exactly what the Astros are looking to do, as they’re out for the sweep today. They transitioned their regular-season success against the Yankees to a dominant 3-0 lead in this ALCS. After such a grueling regular season and a tough 5-game ALDS, New York is now out to just keep their season alive. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Astros ML (+100)
Astros total runs – over 3.5 (+115)
Lance McCullers Jr. 6+ strikeouts (+105)
Parlay odds: +400
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (+100) over New York Yankees
We and many others anticipated the Astros to have a strong series, but this type of domination has just been tough for Yankees fans to watch. Pulling off a sweep in any series is tough, but Houston has proved to be a tier above New York. After going 5-2 against them in the regular season, they’ve handled them even easier in the postseason. They pushed back Lance McCullers Jr.’s start to this Game 4, and he looks set up for success.
The Bronx Bombers have done nothing to live up to that nickname. They are hitting an abysmal .128 in this series with a .223 slugging percentage. They’re a team that relies on home runs to win games, and they have just 2 thus far. That can quickly be explained by Aaron Judge hitting .083 in this series. The Astros took last night’s game in shutout fashion, and now get to face Yankees starter Nestor Cortes. He’s had a career year, but this is going to be a whole different ball game than facing the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS. They were the 3rd-worst team against lefties this season, while the Astros have been smashing lefties. With them have the 2nd-highest OPS against such pitching, Houston can earn their World Series bid today.
Be sure to check out our Houston Astros vs New York Yankees predictions
Astros total runs – Over 3.5 (+115)
This play correlates perfectly with how well the Astros have hit against lefties this season. It’s not a high total, yet it’s listed at plus-money. That’s because these teams have primarily had low-scoring games, but that’s why we’re focusing on the Houston side of things. The Yankees have not been able to contribute towards the total, whereas the Astros have hit this prop in each of the last 2 games. They did so in their last regular-season meeting as well, and now they get to face a lefty in Cortes. He’s never pitched this many innings in a season before, and now he has the weight of New York on his shoulders to keep their season alive. He gave up 3 runs when he faced Houston earlier in the year. That means we’d just need a single run against the Yankees bullpen that is taxed after 8 straight postseason games.
Lance McCullers Jr 6+ strikeouts (+105)
Let’s wrap things up leaning into the trend of the Yankees’ poor hitting in this series. Not only are they not hitting home runs, they aren’t hitting anything. They’ve now struck out 41 times across 3 games, good for an average of nearly 12 times per game. We need only half of that number for this prop, which McCullers is more than capable of.
He missed much of the first half of the season and therefore didn’t face the Yankees at all this year. However, he hit this prop in 6 of his 9 starts this season, including an 11-strikeout performance. He’s also undefeated against New York in his career and hit this prop in 4 of his 5 starts against them. One of those was a 10-strikeout game, so getting to 6 should be no problem for McCullers today.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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