Mark Lammey
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It’s a beautiful thing to see a full slate of MLB action throughout the day. We’ve got you covered all the way from the first game of the day through to Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Let’s get things started with the early game — the series finale between the Astros and Guardians. Despite their difference in overall record, they are still eyeing division-winning seasons. Houston has largely dominated with its elite pitching staff, while the Guardians have relied on arguably the league’s best hitter. Such a matchup provides plenty of ways to target this game. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Guardians +1.5 (-152)
Under 10.5 total runs (-340)
Jose Ramirez 2+ total bases (+130)
Parlay odds: +400
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-152) over Houston Astros
There’s no denying that the Astros dominated the first half of this series. However, the Guardians have a real opportunity to salvage things and secure the series split today. First and foremost, there is a much higher chance of the Astros resting a couple of key players for the finale, as they did with Jeremy Pena and Kyle Tucker last night. Houston has a 12.5-game lead over anyone else in their division, and has no reason to take any unnecessary risks. Meanwhile, the Guardians are in the midst of a 3-team race for the AL Central lead, with each separated by just 2 games, and cannot afford to take any games off.
Even at full strength Cleveland proved they have the ability to pull off an upset over Houston with Triston McKenzie on the mound. That’s exactly what happened in the first game of the season between these teams, with a 6-1 Guardians victory. It seems the sharp bettors have also remembered that, as this line opened at +130. McKenzie, nicknamed Sticks with his lanky frame, allowed just a single run and just 3 hits in his 7.0 innings of work against the Astros. Following that start, the Guardians went on to win 7 of McKenzie’s next 10 starts, including a shutout win over the Yankees. Even if this 1 isn’t as dominant, Cleveland can get the day started with an upset.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians
Under 10.5 total runs (-340)
This play may not seem to add much value, but including a total boosts this from what was only about a +240 play. The season series between these teams have primarily been low-scoring and should be again today, especially with today’s starting pitching matchup. McKenzie’s upset over the Astros earlier in the year ended with just 7 runs, while Javier’s start 2 days later saw just 3. That’s been a theme for both of these teams this season, as their relief pitching is among their biggest strengths.
The Astros have had the league’s best bullpen for quite some time, overtaking the Yankees. Similarly, Cleveland has been at least in the top 10 virtually all season and it was their closer, Emmanuel Clase, who finished off this year’s all-star game. The Guardians bullpen should also get some nice rest behind McKenzie with how well he’s performed. He began July with that upset against the Yankees, which ended in a 2-0 final. That began a stretch in which McKenzie didn’t allow a single run for 3 consecutive starts, pitching 21.0 innings in the process. Similarly, Javier has had 20 starts this season; only 3 of them have exceeded 9 runs.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets – we went 2-0 yesterday!
Jose Ramirez 2+ total bases (+130)
It’s no surprise that Ramirez is the target nearly anytime a hitting prop is involved with the Guardians. While it may not be an out-of-the-box play, it doesn’t mean there isn’t value. He has the 2nd-most total bases in the American League with 218, ahead of even the Astros Yordan Alvarez. Ramirez is even ranked as the #1 overall hitter in the league by several metrics.
He’s no one-trick pony either; he has 112 overall hits for 35 doubles, 4 triples, and 21 home runs. One of those doubles was against Houston’s Javier. That helped cap off a series of hitting this prop in every game. The Guardians 3rd baseman may not have had the best start to this series, but he bounced back last night and had 6 totals bases twice in the last series against the Astros, followed by 2 in the series finale. Now that he’s facing an advantageous matchup, trust one of the league’s best to come through on Sunday.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1036 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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