Mark Lammey
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Two of the league’s best are back at it, in what may be a World Series preview. The Astros recently overtook the Yankees as the favorites to win the American League. Meanwhile, the Braves are the 3rd-betting favorite to win the National League. Houston all but has the AL West wrapped up, while Atlanta is in a heated battle for supremacy of the NL East. Therefore, it should be no surprise that there is an abundance of talent in this matchup. That also means there are several ways in which we can attack this game and make it profitable.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Astros ML (+115)
Over 5.5 total runs (-270)
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+125)
Parlay odds: +390
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Houston Astros ML (+115) over Atlanta Braves
This game originally opened with the Astros as +130 underdogs. If that sounds a little crazy, you aren’t alone. That number significantly moved, before evening out just a bit. Houston not only leapfrogged the Yankees as the favorites to win the AL, they’re the 2nd-betting favorites to win the World Series. There’s no doubt that the Braves are a great team as well, but the Astros have the ability to beat anybody. They were the only team to cause the Yankees issues back when they looked unstoppable, and they should remind everyone of that tonight.
There should also be confidence in them doing so behind starter Cristian Javier. He’s been great this month specifically, and has gotten better with each start. After allowing just 2 runs in the first start of August, he allowed just 1 in the next, and the most recent was a scoreless, 1-hit performance. He also went exactly 6.0 innings in each start, and has the league’s best bullpen coming in behind him. There’s never a doubt the Astros lineup can produce and support him, and their lineup is just as deep as the Braves. All the way from one of the best leadoff men in Jose Altuve, down to a young stud in Jeremy Pena. The combination of a hot starter, elite bullpen, and efficient lineup should keep Houston from having a problem and pull off this upset.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
Over 5.5 total runs (-270)
Javier’s dominance recently is part of what has this game’s total tied as the lowest on the board. That’s why we’re going to use a slightly alternate total to play it just a bit safe. Simply looking at the names in the lineups of this game would make 5.5 runs seem reachable in a single inning. Not only do the Astros have the aforementioned Altuve and Pena, they have the consistency of Kyle Tucker and even bolstered their lineup with designated hitter Trey Mancini at the trade deadline. The pushback would be Braves rookie starter Spencer Strider.
However, the youngster has been quite literally up-and-down recently. For 6 straight starts he’s been strong, followed by struggles. For example, he had a great start against the Mets in mid-July, then gave up 5 runs to the league-worst Nationals. Then he was strong again against the Phillies, followed by allowing 4 runs in just 2.2 innings to the Mets. It’s not so much that he’s “due” for a rough outing as it is that the Astros are a team that can give him one.
That’s all without mentioning the depth and great hitters of the Braves lineup. Led by Austin Riley, they’re the 3rd-highest scoring team in the league. Riley was the only hitter with at least 30 doubles and 30 home runs for almost 2 weeks until Paul Goldschmidt’s homer last night. Similarly, teammate Matt Olson’s 36 doubles are the 3rd-most in the league. With a stud leadoff man of their own in Ronald Acuna Jr, the Braves can certainly still contribute enough to get over such a low alternate total.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+125)
Throughout all of the incredible hitters mentioned, we’re going to take the great value with Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker. He was a major factor in the Astros putting up 21 runs in the game prior to this series, as he went 4-for-6 with 3 RBI and scored 2 runs. After racking up 282 total bases last season, he’s already at 191 this season with a .480 slugging percentage. Those numbers were boosted with the help of last night’s double and home run. There’s also a specific reason we’re targeting him with this matchup.
The primary reason Strider struggled against the Mets was due to how well lefties have been hitting him. Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo all have slugging percentages of at least .600 against Strider, and OPS’s of at least 1.000. That means that Yordan Alvarez and Tucker would be prime targets for tonight’s game. However, Alvarez generally has a much more expensive price and also left last night’s game. Therefore, we’re going to take the value with Tucker to continue his 11-game hitting streak.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1399 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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