Andrew Ortenberg
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Baseball is finally back. The 2021 MLB season officially kicked off on Thursday, and the action was jam-packed. We’ve got a nice seven-game slate now on Friday, and why not celebrate opening weekend by going for a nice payday? That’s right, we’re back with our first MLB parlay of the season, this time a three-teamer with a payout of almost 15/1 where we’re counting on the A’s to bounce back from an opening loss.
We’re going big and bold, so let’s not waste any more time. We’re diving in, but don’t forget to check out our picks for the side and total on every MLB game.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+150)
Oakland A’s -1.5 (+140)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+155)
Parlay odds: +1430
Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+150)
To start off this mega parlay, I think the Rays are going to win this one big. In classic Tampa fashion they won 1-0 on Opening Day, and I think Miami’s offensive struggles are going to continue here. Ryan Yarbrough has been very solid, and the Rays should once again have one of the best bullpens in the league just in case he falters. I don’t think he’s going to though. The Marlins limited the Rays to only one run on Thursday because they got a great start from Sandy Alcantara, and I don’t think they’ll be quite as lucky with Pablo Lopez here. Lopez had a 3.61 ERA in the mini-season last year, but in 2019 it was 5.09 and I think that’s closer to reality. We started to see that as he began to unravel down the stretch in 2020, with a 5.87 ERA in his five starts in the final month of the season.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins.
Oakland A’s -1.5 (+140)
The A’s got stomped by the Astros in their opener, and I think we’re going to see a bounce-back effort from them here. Houston will start Christian Javier, and when you dig into his metrics it becomes clear that he’s due for some regression in 2021. He had a .194 BABIP last season, which simply isn’t going to hold up. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projects his BABIP to be .310 this year, which is obviously a huge difference. Thursday’s result notwithstanding the Astros are a much worse team on the road, and the A’s were fantastic at home last season. Their bats should be extra motivated after their embarrassing showing on Opening Day, and now is the time to buy-low on them.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+155)
To wrap up this parlay we’re going with the Mariners on the run line as well in the nightcap. To say Seattle has some momentum entering this one would be a big understatement. They were down 6-1 in the eighth inning on Thursday night before storming back to get the win. Their bats ended the game sizzling hot, and they should be able to carry that over to Friday when they’ll face Johnny Cueto. Cueto is over the hill, as his injury plagued 2018 and 2019 campaigns showed. He was finally healthy last season, and had a 5.40 ERA. The 35-year-old just doesn’t have the juice anymore. Seattle starter Yusei Kikuchi looked good in spring training, and his advanced metrics from 2020 indicate he got pretty unlucky.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners.
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