Ricky Dimon
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A huge Friday slate of Major League Baseball action consists of 15 games, including this showdown between the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves. It begins a three-game series that is especially big for the Braves, who are still wallowing two games under .500 whereas the Padres are 20-12. Here is a look at the best same game parlay option for San Diego-Atlanta and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
I cashed my last same game parlay for Sunday Night Baseball between the Cubs and Dodgers at +899, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Under 7 (-105)
Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
Marcell Ozuna to record an RBI (+170)
Parlay odds: +1549
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Max Fried striking out his fair share of batters would obviously work well with an under bet. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Marcell Ozuna to drive in at least one run, but even if he does there is no reason why the game can’t stay under. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Under 7 (-105)
Although 7 is not exactly a massive number, it’s also not the smallest of the day. It probably should be when Fried is taking the mound in addition to the fact that an underachieving Atlanta lineup is going up against Yu Darvish. Fried surrendered 5 runs in his first appearance of the season but has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start since that initial blemish. Darvish is 3-1 and his numbers are also deflated by one atrocious outing (9 runs 1.2 innings almost exactly one month ago against San Francisco). Since then the veteran right-hander has been lights out. Both bullpens are well-stocked with talent and will benefit from having been off on Thursday. Until the Braves’ bats heat up, the under is generally the way to play their games and this one is no exception.
Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
Fried has struck out at least six batters in three of his last four starts, including eight on two occasions. The left-hander worked 7.0 innings in his most recent appearance, throwing 95 pitches. The leash is getting longer (for pretty much everyone, not just Fried) as the season trudges along. Fried fired a complete-game shutout in his only start against San Diego last year, so you have to like his chances of being successful again on Friday. Getting Fried at plus money to reach the six-strikeout mark is a steal.
Marcell Ozuna to record an RBI (+170)
For the amount that this play enhances the payout, it’s a risk well worth taking. The Braves will probably score at least a few runs; if they do, don’t be surprised if Ozuna is responsible. Sure he has not been getting on base much of late, but he has struck out only once in the last five games (16 at-bats). He is seeing the ball pretty well. Most importantly, he fares well against Darvish. Ozuna is 5-for-16 lifetime (.313) with a career cycle.
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