Andrew Ortenberg
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The 2021 MLB season is approaching the home stretch, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a nice big slate on Friday, and one of the best games is this NL showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
What better way to celebrate this game between two playoff contenders than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
San Diego Padres -2.5 (+152)
Blake Snell to record 10+ strikeouts (+700)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1117
We have a simple 2-leg parlay here, one which pays out north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
San Diego Padres -2.5 (+152)
The Padres haven’t played their best lately, but neither have the Phillies. Philadelphia had a brief surge that put them in first place in the NL East, and they responded to that success by now having lost seven of their past nine. Interestingly, both teams have stark home/road splits. The Phillies are 36-25 at home but 25-35 on the road, while the Padres are only 27-32 on the highway but a dominant 40-24 in the friendly confines of Petco Park.
That has me feeling a lot better about San Diego. Perhaps most importantly, the Phillies are starting Matt Moore here. Moore made just two big league appearances in 2019 and none in 2020, and recently it’s become clear why. The veteran lefty has a 6.07 ERA through 18 appearances and 10 starts with Philly this year. He rarely makes it out of the fifth inning, which will expose this shaky Phillies bullpen. The Padres will win this one big.
Blake Snell to record 10+ strikeouts (+700)
This longshot play correlates heavily with the first leg of our same game parlay. If Snell has one of his dominant games the Padres are almost certainly going to win by multiple runs, because Moore isn’t going to throw a gem against this San Diego lineup. 2021 has been a down year for Snell, but he’s been turning it on lately. Over his last three starts, he’s given up only three total runs. One of those outings was his last start at Petco, where he struck out 13.
Overall, he’s gotten to double-digit strikeouts in three of his past 14 starts. For a bet to be worth it at +700, it only needs to cash 12.5 percent of the time. Snell got to nine strikeouts five times in only 11 tries last year. In 2019, he got to double-digit strikeouts in five of his 20 full starts. In 2018 it was seven times in 31 starts. You get the idea. Historically it’s quite clear he’s got far better than a 12.5 percent chance of racking up 10 strikeouts, especially against a struggling Phillies offense that has been striking out at a higher rate against lefties like Snell this year.
Make sure you check out our three-leg MLB mega parlay for today (+939 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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