Kevin Davies
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TGIF! We have made it through the work week and have an excellent slate of games to celebrate with tonight. I’ve taken a look at 3 matchups happening tonight for my parlay that pays out at nearly 9/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get into it!
Cubs/Red Sox Under 8 (-105)
Braves -1.5 (+102)
Phillies -1.5 (+150)
Parlay odds: +885
Chicago Cubs vs Red Sox Under 8 (-105)
The best pitching matchup of the night takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. Shota Imanaga will take the hill for the Cubs and he will be countered by Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. Following his first 4 starts of the season, Imanaga owns a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP and has dominated some of the best lineups in baseball already. The Japanese sensation took on the star-studded Dodgers lineup a few weeks ago, and he threw 4.0 shutout innings while allowing just 2 hits. The lefty’s fastball and splitter has taken the league by storm, and that combination should continue to be a problem against the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have had a disappointing — but not unexpected — start of the season. Countless injuries have plagued the Sox lineup and starting rotation in just the first month. However, there has been a silver lining: Kutter Crawford. The right-hander has had a breakout season so far, as he has posted a 0.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his first 5 starts. He has allowed more than 3 hits in an outing just once, and at Fenway Park, he has surrendered just 4 hits in 10.2 innings. This game should feature only a few runs, so I’m taking the under with confidence.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+102) over Cleveland Guardians
Logan Allen was a key piece of Cleveland’s youth movement last season. He posted a 3.81 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate in 24 starts. However, he hasn’t been the same pitcher in 2024. Allen owns a 5.06 ERA with a 10.8% barrel rate and just a 18.6% strikeout rate so far this season. The lefty has already allowed 6 home runs in 26.2 innings, which is alarming since he allowed 16 in over 120 innings last year. That’s even more worrisome since he’s facing the Braves on Friday night.
Chris Sale looks 5 years younger in a Braves uniform. The former Red Sox ace has been the perfect addition to the Atlanta starting rotation, posting a 3.57 xERA with a 1.05 WHIP in his first 4 starts. His strikeout rate is back to normal and his ground-ball rate is back to near 50%, which gives me the confidence that he is finally fully healthy. In Atlanta, Sale is 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Sale and the Braves should be able to run the Guardians out of the stadium.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150) over San Diego Padres
According to advanced metrics, Joe Musgrove has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Musgrove ranks in the 6th percentile in xERA, 5th percentile in xBA, 36% percentile in barrel rate and 19th percentile in strikeout rate. Plus, his ground-ball rate is just 39.2%. That’s the first time his ground-ball rate has below 40% in his 9-year career. In summary, Musgrove is getting hit harder than ever and hasn’t been able to get the weak contact he’s been known to get.
The Phillies had a slow start to the season. However, I wasn’t worried and I’m glad I didn’t jump the gun. Philadelphia has won 8 of its last 10 games and the lineup has finally woken up. Part of that is Bryce Harper returning after being on the paternity list, so the lineup is finally full again. Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto have been phenomenal in the middle of the order. Philly ranks 4th in OPS in the last 7 days, so I’m confident backing its bats against Musgrove on Friday — especially with Aaron Nola on the bump.
