Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Friday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +927 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152)
Rays first 5 innings run line -0.5 (+118)
Cardinals vs Mets Over 8.5 (-115)
MLB parlay odds: +927
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Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152) over Cleveland Guardians
To start our mega parlay, we’re going with the Diamondbacks on the run line. We should have a significant advantage on the mound in this one, as Zac Gallen will get the ball for the NL West-leading Diamondbacks. The Arizona ace should have no trouble shutting down a Guardians offense that is one of the worst in the league in most statistical categories, including OBP, SLG and OPS. With a 3.09 ERA and 10 quality starts on the season, Gallen is one of the best pitchers in the NL and should prove it once again at home. The Diamondbacks lineup should provide enough run support for Gallen against Guardians starter Triston McKenzie (4.50 ERA), who has excellent stuff but is too inconsistent to be trusted. Expect a convincing victory from Arizona on Friday.
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Tampa Bay Rays first 5 innings run line -0.5 (+118) over San Diego Padres
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the Rays on the run line in the first 5 innings. Tampa Bay has been a money printer for backers this season, but the Rays just had a disappointing series in which they dropped 2 of 3 to the lowly A’s in Oakland. This should be a motivated Tampa Bay team in the first of a 3-game set against the floundering Padres, especially with Shane McClanahan on the mound. The Rays ace is currently the AL Cy Young favorite, and for good reason. With a 2.18 ERA and just 16 ER allowed over his last 10 starts, the southpaw should dominate Juan Soto, Manny Machado and a San Diego lineup that has not faced McClanahan yet. I’ll ride the hot hand with the Tampa Bay starter and take bullpens out of the equation.
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Over 8.5 (-115)
To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with the over in a matchup between the Cardinals and Mets. Miles Mikolas is a pitcher that I’ve been looking to fade for the majority of the season, and his numbers aren’t pretty. Mikolas is coming off an outing in which he surrendered 5 runs, which followed up his previous start in which he allowed 10 hits. Mikolas is ripe for the picking against the Mets and the metrics would agree, as Mikolas holds an xERA of 4.87, plus a whiff rate and xBA in the bottom 7 percentile of all qualified starters. He’ll be opposed by Tylor Megill, who has allowed 16 ER over his last 16 innings pitched and his advanced metrics (5.85 xERA, bottom 15% xBA & BB rate) show that there’s still room for even more regression in his coming starts.
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