Those darn Cubs. I was one win away from cashing yesterday’s +863 mega parlay, but Marcus Stroman and the Cubs were upset by the Cardinals at Wrigley yesterday. Today, I’m out for revenge. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Orioles vs Rays alternate total under 7.5 (-104)
Padres vs Tigers alternate total under 8.5 (+106)
Mets vs Red Sox alternate total under 8.5 (+150)
MLB Parlay odds: +910
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Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.5 (-104)
I cannot stress this enough: Zach Eflin at home is a cash cow. Let me explain. The right-hander has been solid in his first year with the Rays as he sports a 3.59 ERA paired with a 3.20 xERA and a 3.14 FIP. But unlike almost everyone, Eflin seems to enjoy the Trop. The bouncy turf, catwalks installed at an illogically-low height and general atmosphere of the Trop turns a lot of people away, and rightfully so. However, Eflin thrives in Tampa Bay. He is 9-1 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.834 WHIP and a .204 batting average against in 10 outings at home. Eflin has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a start at home this season and seems to be a completely different pitcher in Tampa Bay than on the road. His lone start against the Orioles this season came in Baltimore, and to little surprise, Eflin wasn’t great. But now, back at home, it’s hard to stray from my cash cow.
The Baltimore Orioles are a top-5 team in baseball, and a big reason for it has been their pitching. We all knew their bullpen was fantastic, but Baltimore’s struggle was getting to their bullpen with a lead. That’s changed in the last month or two, and that’s why they’ve surged to the front of the AL East. Kyle Bradish has played a huge role in the success as the second-year pitcher has a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts. That doesn’t share the story on Bradish’s recent starts though, because he comes into this start on a 15.1 scoreless innings streak. That spans over 3 different starts, which have come against the Twins, Yankees and Marlins. But looking at an even bigger sample size, Bradish has surrendered 2 runs or less in 6 consecutive outings and has limited hitters to a .218 batting average in that span. I’m expecting a pitching duel between a pair of the best starters in the American League.
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San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Under 8.5 (+106)
Next up in this mega parlay, I’m going with another alternate total. I’m targeting the game in Detroit between the Padres and Tigers, which should feature a lot less scoring than oddsmakers expect. San Diego’s offense was able to show some life in their series in Philadelphia and then keep it up in Toronto, but the second they faced a good pitcher like Chris Bassitt, they collapsed. The Padres managed just 6 hits in their shutout loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday, and I’m still not convinced that San Diego has a winning lineup. Even with Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts, the Padres can’t score enough runs to help their pitching staff. I’m expecting more of the same on Friday night as San Diego faces Reese Olson, a 23-year-old rookie. In 9 games, which includes 6 starts, Olson has a 3.96 ERA and a 4.03 xERA. But looking at his game log, his stats have been skewed from one poor outing in mid-June. Looking at his recent appearances, Olson has surrendered just 3 runs and 8 hits in his last 12.1 innings.
The Tigers’ offense was able to knock around Jordan Lyles (who can’t these days?) and the rest of the weak Kansas City rotation in their last series, but Seth Lugo is a step up in talent. The former reliever has already pitched more innings than he did all last season, and I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen. By no means am I saying that Lugo is an ace, but he’s a decent back-end arm that should be able to have success against a Detroit lineup that is still too top-heavy right now. The right-hander has made 5 starts since returning from injury and has allowed 1 run or less in 3 of the 5 starts, but he got a reality check from the Phillies in his last start. Philadelphia launched 2 homers against Lugo which turned a decent outing into a poor one very quickly. However, that’s not something I’m too worried about with the Tigers’ lineup since they have the 18th-most home runs against right-handed pitching since June 1. In a pitcher-friendly park, I’m expecting the total to finish around 5-7 runs.
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New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Under 8.5 (+150)
These teams are commonly known as “frenemies” since they both have a rivalry with the Yankees, but let’s be honest, all three teams stink this season. The Red Sox just lost 2 of 3 to the A’s (oof) while the Mets barely escaped with the series win against the White Sox. Boston does have better playoff chances than New York, but not by much — especially if they keep losing to teams they need to beat. This series is an opportunity for both the Red Sox and Mets to stack a few wins, but I have little faith in either offense right now, and that’s why I’m backing the pitchers. Kutter Crawford is an incredibly underrated pitcher (at times) and is coming off his best outing of the season against the Cubs. He threw 6 shutout innings and surrendered just 1 hit while striking out 9. So since Crawford has been moved into the rotation, he’s given up 2 runs or less in 6 of the 8 starts.
It took a few weeks, but Kodai Senga has blossomed into a certified ace. Senga appeared to struggle to acclimate to the MLB lifestyle which involved more traveling, fewer off-days and a more rigorous throwing schedule than his previous experiences in Japan. Senga’s control became more and more affected in his first few weeks in the big leagues as he totaled 18 walks in his first 26 innings. However, it seems Senga has settled in nicely. The Japanese sensation has a 2.36 ERA in his last 6 starts which includes allowing 2 earned runs or less in 5 of the 6 outings. During that 6-start span, hitters have a .180 batting average, .208 xBA and a 31% strikeout rate against Senga. After watching Oakland’s pitching staff shut down Boston’s lineup, I’m willing to gamble on Senga doing the same.
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