Kevin Davies
Show Bio
It’s a packed Friday slate in baseball with plenty of exciting matchups happening. A lot of aces are taking the hill too like Ranger Suarez, Jared Jones, Tanner Houck, Tyler Glasnow, and Logan Webb. All signs point to an action-packed night, so let’s get right into my 3-leg parlay from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tigers ML (+114)
Rays ML (+108)
Phillies -2.5 (+126)
Parlay odds: +905
Detroit Tigers ML (+114) over Houston Astros
The Astros were nearly swept in the Bronx earlier this week which lowers their season record to 13-24. I understand having a bad start, but we’re six weeks into the season, and it’s no longer just a slump. Houston’s lineup is failing to produce even though it is stacked with phenomenal talent at the top of the lineup. Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Jeremy Pena are doing their part, but the rest of the lineup has failed to hit with runners in scoring position. Plus, their pitching hasn’t been to their normal standard. That includes Framber Valdez, who has allowed 14 hits, 7 runs, and 2 home runs in 10.1 innings since coming off the injured list.
Casey Mize missed nearly two full seasons, but you wouldn’t know it by the way he’s pitching this season. He has a 3.98 ERA and a 3.83 xERA in 6 starts, but those numbers are slightly skewed because of his recent poor outing against the Yankees. He’s a reliable pitcher that has a solid bullpen behind him, so if he can limit the Astros top-heavy lineup to 3 runs or less, the Tigers could claw their way to a win.
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+108) over New York Yankees
After missing over a month of action, Taj Bradley is back in the starting rotation. He made two rehab starts in Triple-A and allowed just 1 run and 2 hits with 15 strikeouts in 11 innings. Bradley will be backed by a lineup that hasn’t been too powerful so far, but that’s because of a lot of injuries to their order. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Josh Lowe just made his season debut and Brandon Lowe is rumored to make his return tonight. The Rays could be a dangerous team when everything comes together, and I’m taking a chance that it all clicks tonight.
Clarke Schmidt is a solid pitcher, but he’s going to get hit and give up runs. He’s allowed 7 runs across his last 3 starts and can also struggle with control issues as he’s allowed at least 3 walks in 3 separate outings. His lineup has plenty of power at the top of the lineup, but if the Rays can avoid getting beat by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, the rest of the New York lineup will have a lot of work to do. At plus money, the Rays are worth the risk.
Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 (+126) over Miami Marlins
The final leg of this parlay is an alternate run line pick. It’s a lefty showdown in South Florida as Ranger Suarez will toe the rubber for the Phillies and Trevor Rogers will oppose him for the Marlins. Immediately, one team has an advantage. The Marlins are 1-14 against left-handed starting pitchers in 2024. The Fish own the 6th worst batting average, 2nd worst on-base percentage, 3rd worst slugging, and 3rd worst OPS against southpaw pitchers. To make matters worse, the Marlins just shipped on-base machine Luis Arraez to the Marlins which takes the best bat out of their lineup.
The Philies own one of the best records in baseball, and a lot of that has to do with their schedule. Philadelphia has had a very easy first six weeks of the season as they’ve been able to beat up on a lot of poor teams. Tonight will be no different since the Marlins have the 2nd worst record in baseball coming into this series. Plus, Suarez has a 2.23 xERA and .207 xBA after 7 starts. Take the Phillies to dominate in the series opener.
