Caleb Wilfinger
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With 15 Major League Baseball games taking place on Friday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +862 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Cardinals vs Guardians Over 8 (-110)
Pirates ML (+140)
Rangers ML (+110)
MLB parlay odds: +862
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Over 8 (-110)
To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with the over in the Cardinals vs Guardians matchup. The biggest factor that I see contributing to this total is that this matchup features a couple of starting pitchers that are due for serious regression. Shane Bieber’s counting stats are pretty solid across the board, including an ERA of 3.08 on the season. However, his xERA of 4.92 suggests that regression is looming for the Guardians ace. Per Baseball Savant, Bieber’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both rank inside the bottom 5 percentile of all qualified pitchers, so I’d expect the Cardinals offense to see some success against Bieber.
Matthew Liberatore will get the start for St. Louis and it’s clear that he’s pitching above his head at the moment. Liberatore holds an xERA of 6.09 compared to his 3.00 ERA and most of his advanced metrics would suggest that he has been a below-average pitcher this season. The Guardians offense has struggled of late, but they should push across at least a couple of runs against Liberatore and the Cardinals bullpen in front of their home fans. This total is fairly low so I’ll back the over at this price.
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Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+140) over Seattle Mariners
For the second leg of this parlay, I’ll take a shot with the Pirates on the money line. Pittsburgh has crashed back to earth a bit after a sensational start to the season, but I still see value with the Pirates against an overrated Mariners team. Mitch Keller has been one of the biggest surprises in the National League, and his advanced numbers show that his ERA of 2.44 isn’t a fluke.
He’ll be taking on a Mariners offense that doesn’t exactly bring much to the table (24th in SLG, 25th in OPS), so I expect another strong outing from the Pirates’ best pitcher. Conversely, Mariners starter George Kirby has pitched well at home this season, but his whiff rate, xBA and strikeout percentage are all below average, so there is cause for concern against a disciplined lineup.
Texas Rangers ML (+110) over Baltimore Orioles
To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with the Rangers on the money line. This is a game between a pair of evenly-matched teams that have both slightly overachieved to this point in the season. It’s an exciting matchup on paper and one that should be close throughout. When in doubt, I’ll back the in-form pitcher and that’s what we have in Jon Gray for Texas. Gray already limited the Orioles to 2 runs on 4 hits in 6.1 IP on April 3 and he’s surrendered just 2 runs over his last 20 IP heading into this contest.
Grayson Rodriguez has terrific stuff and has showed flashes of brilliance in his debut season, but the right-hander’s ERA is 6.21 for a reason and opposing hitters are generating a ton of hard contact against the rookie. I’ll back Texas.
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