MLB Friday parlay at mega (+824) odds today 4/7: Don't doubt the Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith (16) celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Dodger Stadium.

Friday brings us a glorious slate of 14 matchups, and that’s more than enough games to craft a mega parlay. After analyzing the board, I’ve pieced together 3 picks that I believe make up a winning parlay at over 8/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. My mega parlay includes taking 2 underdogs on the money line and 1 favorite on an alternate run line. Also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.

Astros ML (+102)

Nationals ML (+110)

Dodgers alternate line -2.5 (+118)

MLB parlay odds: +824

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Houston Astros ML over Minnesota Twins (+102)

The World Series hangover is in full effect for the Astros. Heading into Friday night’s game, Houston is 3-4 following a surprising series loss to the Tigers. However, they have a great chance to get back to .500 against Sonny Gray. Gray threw 5 scoreless innings while allowing just 3 hits against the Royals in his season debut. The concerning part of his outing was issuing 4 walks and having a .362 xBA. The veteran allowed at least 4 walks in only 3 starts last season, and it was clear that he was struggling to locate his secondary pitches. When he did throw strikes, the Royals hit him hard, as the Kansas City hitters had an average exit velocity of 95 MPH against Gray. 

The Astros were underdogs in just 24 of their 162 games last season. Friday night will mark the first time of the year that Houston will be at plus odds on the money line, and I’m more than willing to take it. The biggest reason for Houston being an underdog is that Jose Urquidy will be on the mound. Urquidy is one of the more hittable pitchers on the Astros staff and can be prone to the long ball due to his flat fastball. However, he threw his slider and curveball more in his first start, and both pitches looked sharper than last season. As long as Urquidy keeps the Twins to 3 runs or less, the Astros have an excellent chance to win at even better odds. 

Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for Friday

Washington Nationals ML over Colorado Rockies (+110)

This line is baffling to me. Jose Urena was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season and is the favorite on Friday night. Right off the bat (pun intended), the Rockies should be at plus-money odds. However, oddsmakers have listed the Nationals as the underdog, but I don’t anticipate that to be the case for too long. Urena had a 6.30 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP at Coors Field last season as opponents rocked him for a .311 average and a .859 OPS. He will take on a young Nationals squad that has a combined 19 plate appearances against Urena and a .389 batting average. Although Washington doesn’t possess the greatest offense in the world, they are still professional hitters that can shell Urena in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. 

The Padres gave up on the young lefty MacKenzie Gore. San Diego is in win-now mode, and a 24-year-old still learning his way in the Majors didn’t fit into their future plans. That opened the door for Gore to grow with the Nationals, who are in desperate need of an ace (I’m looking at you, Patrick Corbin). There are two things you should know about Gore: he tends to allow walks and has a flat fastball. Obviously, those aren’t the greatest attributes for a starting pitcher to have, but he does have solid secondary pitches that lead to a higher strikeout rate. I don’t see a way for Colorado to stay in the game with Urena pitching, so I’m taking the Nationals at a great price.

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Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+118) over Arizona Diamondbacks

For the second time in the last week, Clayton Kershaw will face off against Madison Bumgarner. It was a very one-sided game in the first meeting as the Dodgers ended the night with a 10-1 win, and Bumgarner was rocked. In just 4 innings, the lefty allowed 5 runs on 4 hits with 3 walks. His good years are far in the rearview mirror, and there haven’t been many offenses that he’s had success against in the last season or two. In 2022 against the Dodgers, Bumgarner was 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA, and he allowed 4 home runs in just 17 innings. Not only will Bumgarner need to limit the strong Dodgers lineup, but he will also need his offense to find some success against Kershaw.

The southpaw turned back the clock in his season debut as he recorded 9 strikeouts while allowing just 1 run in 6 innings. It’s not too surprising that Kershaw dominated the Arizona lineup since he has been doing that for the last several years. In 2022, he had a 0.69 ERA and a 0.692 WHIP in 2 starts against the Diamondbacks. Although Arizona has had a lot of turnover in their lineup, players like Ketel Marte, Evan Longoria and Nick Ahmed have been with the Diamondbacks for years and have struggled against Kershaw. The Dodgers were able to win by 9 runs when these pitchers faced off last week, and now that Los Angeles is guaranteed all 9 innings to hit, I think they can cover an alternate line at great odds. 

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