Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Friday, I have looked through today’s 15 MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +780 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for today.
New York Mets Over 4.5 & ML (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120)
Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings -0.5 (+110)
MLB parlay odds: +780
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New York Mets team total over 4.5 runs & ML (+100) over Colorado Rockies
To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with the Mets to score 5+ runs and win the game against the Colorado Rockies. This is a desperate spot for a Mets team that has lost 9 of its last 11 games and now sits at 16-16 for the season after a hot start. New York is back home after a disappointing loss to the lowly Tigers and the Mets should be ready to put a hurting on the Rockies at Citi Field. This leg is purely a fade of Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela, and for good reason. Senzatela has been pretty awful this season, holding an xERA of 5.24 while ranking in the bottom 5 percentile of all qualified pitchers in xBA, xWOBA, strikeout percentage and chase rate. The Mets offense should own this matchup, which makes the team total and money line combination the recommended play here for some more value.
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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120) over San Francisco Giants
For the second leg of our parlay we’re going with the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line. Corbin Burns had a shaky start to his 2023 campaign, but the Brewers ace has started to look like himself again in recent weeks. In fact, over his last 4 starts, Burns has surrendered just 5 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. He’ll get the pleasure of facing a San Francisco offense that has struggled with inconsistency in the 2023 campaign, ranking 17th in runs scored and on-base percentage while sitting at and 20th in total hits.
The Milwaukee offense will also see a welcome sight on the mound in Sean Manaea, who has been awful this season. His 8.20 xERA and poor metrics across the board need no further explanation, as this is probably the biggest pitching mismatch of the day. If Burns can toss 6 more quality innings, I’m expecting a routine victory from the Brewers on Friday.
Los Angeles Dodgers first 5 innings -0.5 (+110) over San Diego Padres
For the final leg in this mega parlay, I’m going with the Dodgers to win the first 5 innings. Los Angeles has caught fire over the last week, winning 6 straight games over the Cardinals and Phillies, in large part due to an offensive explosion. The Dodgers have finally found it at the dish, including a 36-run outburst over the last 3 games against the Phillies. Furthermore, Los Angeles will get to see Clayton Kershaw on the mound as he continues his brilliant 2023 campaign. Kershaw’s 1.90 ERA and outstanding xWOBA, xERA, chase rate and walk rate back up the results we’ve been seeing over his first 6 starts. I’d expect that to continue against a foe he’s very familiar with in the Padres, at least early on. I don’t like messing with bullpens, so give me the Dodgers in the first 5 innings.
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