Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Friday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +717 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Twins -1.5 (+112)
Padres -1.5 (-122)
Giants -1.5 (+112)
MLB parlay odds: +717
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Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (+112)
To start off our mega parlay, I’m going with the Twins on the run line. Things haven’t gone smoothly for Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda so far this season, but he may be due for some positive regression given that his xERA is at 4.55, much lower than his actual ERA. Maeda has been in the league for 7 years now and has consistently been a better pitcher than what he’s displayed so far this season, so I expect him to get back on track against a poor Tigers lineup in this one.
The Tigers have Joey Wentz getting the start and it’s been a difficult season for the southpaw, as he holds an ERA of 6.82 and a WHIP of 1.56 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Wentz ranks in the 15th percentile for xBA, 9th percentile for xSLG, 31st percentile for strikeout percentage and 40th percentile for walk percentage. It’s safe to say that he has struggled consistently this season so the Twins should have some potential opportunities at the plate against him. With Maeda due for positive regression and Wentz expected to keep struggling, I’ll back the better pitcher and lineup with the Twins in this matchup.
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San Diego Padres -1.5 over Washington Nationals (-122)
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the Padres on the run line. Patrick Corbin is a pitcher worth fading in most scenarios, but Friday seems like a perfect storm. The southpaw’s metrics are ghastly across the board, as he sits inside the bottom 6 percentile of all qualified starters in xSLG, xERA, xwOBA and strikeout percentage. He’s not missing many bats either, ranking in the 1st percentile of all starting pitchers in xBA at .324 through 15 starts in 2023. I’m expecting more struggles for Corbin against a loaded Padres lineup that has prior success off the lefty. On the other side, Joe Musgrove’s 3.10 xERA and top-of-the-line hard-hit rate, chase rate and average exit velocity metrics bode well against a poor Nationals lineup. This should be a routine win for San Diego.
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San Francisco Giants -1.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (+112)
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the Giants on the run line. Zach Davies has yet to truly impress this season, and his metrics tell the story. The Diamondbacks starter is in the 18th percentile for xBA, 22nd percentile for strikeout percentage, 35th percentile for walk percentage and 20th percentile for chase rate. Not only is Davies not pitching well, but he now has to take on the scorching-hot Giants, who are 9-1 in their last 10 games. On the other side, Logan Webb has excelled in getting batters to chase (85th percentile) and is great at preventing walks (93rd percentile for BB%). The Diamondbacks have also played a game in 14 straight days, so I expect some major fatigue on their end as well. Back the Giants at home in this one.
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