Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Friday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +704 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Marlins -1.5 (+105)
Rockies ML (+102)
Angels vs Astros Under 7.5 (-106)
MLB parlay odds: +704
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Miami Marlins -1.5 (+105) over Oakland A’s
To start off our mega parlay, we’re going with the Marlins on the run line. The A’s are an easy fade on most days and today is no exception. Oakland is sending Hogan Harris on the mound, who has pitched in just two games this season. His first outing against the Mets was awful as he didn’t make it through the first inning, but he followed it up with an impressive effort against the Astros. With that said, the Marlins are simply the better team.
Edward Cabrera gets the ball for the Fish, and he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of his 11 starts and should be able to control an Athletics lineup that ranks dead last in the MLB in runs scored, batting average & OPS. He relies heavily on the changeup, against which the Athletics lineup have a collective BA of .203. The Marlins’ bats have been in a bit of a slump coming off their recent series against the Padres, but some positive regression can be expected in this matchup.
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Colorado Rockies ML (+102) over Kansas City Royals
For the second leg of this parlay, I’ll take a shot with the Rockies on the money line. Any time that a team is plus-money against the Royals, it’s definitely worth placing a wager on that side. Being that Jordan Lyles is taking the mound for Kansas City, this piece of data makes those original plus-money odds even more appealing. Lyles has had 11 starts this season and has yet to record a single win to this point. Over his 11 outings this season, Lyles has allowed 4+ runs in 9 of them. So far this season, Lyles has himself in a place where most pitchers would not like to be, as he sits in the 14th percentile for K%, 32nd percentile for xBA, and 10th percentile for whiff%. The Rockies should pounce against a struggling pitcher, so I’ll gladly take the plus-odds.
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Under 7.5 (-106)
To close out our mega parlay, we’re going with the under in this Angels vs Astros matchup. This is a matchup between a pair of aces pitching at an elite level. Shohei Ohtani holds an xERA of 2.87 while sitting inside the top-10 percentile of all qualified pitchers in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, hard hit rate and xSLG per Baseball Savant this season. The dynamic 2-way superstar has started fast throughout the season and he should toss a scoreless first inning against an Astros offense that hasn’t seen much success off him in his career. For the hosts, Framber Valdez is pitching at an extremely high level, allowing just 6 ER over his last 4 outings. This should be a pitchers’ duel from start to finish, so I’m expecting a low-scoring affair.
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