Kevin Davies
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Yesterday was a slow day in Major League Baseball, with plenty of teams enjoying a day off. But if you missed it, Dylan Cease threw a no-hitter against the Nationals! As for today, there is plenty of exciting action. The Guardians and Phillies meet in Philadelphia, the Yankees and Red Sox match up at Fenway, and the Dodgers travel to Houston to take on the Astros. There is so much to get into, so let’s jump in!
Guardians/Phillies Under 6.5 (+190)
Red Sox ML (+102)
Royals -1.5 (+136)
Parlay odds: +1282
Cleveland Guardians/Philadelphia Phillies Under 6.5 (+190)
Taking an alternate under with two of the best lineups in baseball? Call me crazy, but it’s the right move. On the mound for this series opener is Ben Lively for the Guardians and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies, and while it may not sound like a pitcher’s duel, it is. Lively has been an unsung hero of the Guardians rotation this year with a 3.57 ERA and .235 xBA in 17 starts. You won’t see Lively touching high 90s, or even mid-90s, but he uses his plethora of offspeed pitchers to get weak contact. Plus, he even has a strikeout rate above 21%, which is the highest of his career. His opposition will be Sanchez, a young lefty named to his first All-Star Game. Sanchez has been a fantastic addition to a very deep Phillies rotation, and his best outings usually come at home. That’s because Sanchez owns a 1.50 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a .214 batting average allowed in 10 starts at Citizens Bank Park. I’m not expecting too many runs with this pitching matchup in Philly.
Boston Red Sox ML (+102) over New York Yankees
It’s rivalry weekend in Boston as the Yankees come to Fenway Park for a 3-game series. The stands will be packed, tensions will be high, and the final score could see double-digit runs. Nestor Cortes will get the start for the Yankees, and nobody has more dramatic home and away splits than Nasty Nestor. The lefty is fantastic at Yankee Stadium with a 2.48 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 11 starts, but unfortunately for him, tonight’s start is in Fenway Park. On the road, Cortes is 0-5, and his ERA balloons to 6.04 with a 1.54 WHIP. Even worse, he’s allowing a .301 batting average and .893 OPS in those 10 road starts. This won’t be his first time pitching in front of the Green Monster either, as Cortes has appeared in six games, including three starts, at Fenway. In those outings, Cortes has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. The bottom line is I don’t trust Cortes away from Yankee Stadium – especially not at Fenway Park. I’m taking the hotter offense and the home team at plus odds.
Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+136) over Chicago Cubs
It’s been a tough season for the Cubs. Chicago was right on Milwaukee’s heels in the first month, but some injuries in the rotation and lack of production at the plate have caused the Cubbies to slip. They’ve brought Kyle Hendricks back into the rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen to work on his mechanics, and not much has changed. The right-hander is still getting hit hard and not missing many bats. Plus, his control seems to be getting worse. Hendricks had been known for his control throughout his career, as he’s ranked in the top 10% of the league in walks several times, but this year has been different. His walk rate has nearly doubled in 2024, and his xBA has risen to .286. His counterpart is Brady Singer, who has had a fabulous bounce-back season as he comes into this start with a 3.00 ERA in 20 starts. Singer has allowed 1 run or less in five of his last six starts and has limited hitters to just a .240 batting average in that span. There’s a massive mismatch between the starting pitchers, so I’m backing Kansas City for a big win.
