Kevin Davies
Show Bio
Football season returned last night as the Ravens and Chiefs had everyone at Arrowhead Stadium on the edge of their seats. But now, there is a few days until the the rest of the teams play, so let’s check out the slate for tonight in Major League Baseball and lock in this mega parlay at more than 10/1 odds!
Nationals ML (+110)
Astros -1.5 (+136)
Royals -1.5 (+142)
Parlay odds: +1099
Washington Nationals ML (+110) over Pittsburgh Pirates
The Nationals have utilized a lot of rookies this season. They weren’t expected to contend for a division title or anything beyond that, so it gave Washington the opportunity to bring up their top prospects and give them a chance in the show without much pressure. The 2 prospects that immediately come to mind are Dylan Crews and James Wood, who have been fantastic, but an unsung hero has been DJ Herz. The rookie southpaw was promoted to the big leagues in June and has been an important part of the rotation ever since. In 15 starts, he owns a 4.09 ERA paired with a 3.38 xERA and an incredibly impressive 28.9% strikeout rate. August was his best month of the season so far, as he posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 6 starts. The rookie will face the Pirates for his 16th start of the season, and on paper it’s a generous matchup for him since Pittsburgh ranks 27th in OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since August 1. I’m backing the better pitcher and taking the Nats at plus odds.
Houston Astros -1.5 (+136) over Arizona Diamondbacks
Framber Valdez has been nothing short of incredible lately. The lefty had a solid first half of the season with an 8-5 record and a 3.66 ERA in 16 starts, but he has been even better than that in the last 2 months. Valdez is 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 8 starts in the second half of the year. And in just the last 5 weeks, he has a 1.59 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP. His most recent start is a big reason for his ERA being so low considering he threw 7 no-hit innings with 7 strikeouts against the Royals. Valdez’s opposition on Friday night will be the right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who had a solid first half of the season but is starting to show signs of fatigue. Pfaadt has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of his last 7 starts and is allowing a .311 batting average with a 3% home run rate during that span. There’s a clear pitching advantage in this matchup which has led me to the Houston run line in the series opener.
Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+142) over Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews had his “welcome to the league” moment in his last outing against the Blue Jays. He was shelled for 10 runs, 9 hits and 3 home runs in just 2.0 innings of work. Bouncing back from that start won’t be easy — especially since he is facing a dangerous Kansas City lineup. Although the Royals lost Vinnie Pasquantino a few days ago, the Royals still have a very dangerous offense led by Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Plus, Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong have been phenomenal pickups down the stretch. Kansas City will have their ace Cole Ragans on the hill for the series opener which immediately gives the Royals a huge pitching advantage. The lefty has made 3 starts against the Twins this season and his most recent was his best as he went 7.0 innings and surrendered just 5 hits and 1 run while striking out 8 hitters. I’m confident enough in Ragans and the Royals lineup to win by multiple runs.
