The end of the work week can be celebrated with a massive slate in the MLB. The Rays and Braves start the day with a 6:40 PM first pitch, and the Rockies and Giants conclude the night with a 10:15 PM start. Below is my mega parlay, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks in addition to my YRFI/NRFI best bets.
Tigers ML (+126)
Reds ML (+114)
Orioles-Twins alternate total Under 7.5 (+128)
Parlay odds: +1002
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Detroit Tigers ML (+126) over Toronto Blue Jays
Welcome back, Alek Manoah. Toronto’s Opening Day starter had one of the worst starts to a season you could possibly imagine and it eventually cost him his job. Manoah had a 6.36 ERA and a 6.85 xERA after 13 starts, but it gets worse. In those 58.0 innings, Manoah ranked in the 9th percentile in xBA and xSLG, 3rd percentile in walk rate, 14th percentile in strikeout rate and, well, you get the idea. After allowing 6 runs and 7 hits in just 0.1 innings to the Astros, Manoah was sent down. But not to Triple-A, or even Double-A, or even Single-A! He was sent all the way down to the Florida Gulf Coast League. In that outing against a bunch of 19-year-olds, Manoah was shelled for 11 runs and 10 hits in 2.2 innings. However, he bounced back in his next start in Double-A — allowing only 1 run and 3 hits in 5.0 innings. The bottom line is Manoah has yet to prove himself at the MLB level, and until he does that I will continue to fade him.
Cincinnati Reds ML (+114) over Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Abbott is the real deal. He is just one of the many rookie sensations on the Reds right now, but unlike Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, or Spencer Steer, he is on the hill and not in the box. In 6 starts for Abbott, he has a 1.21 ERA paired with a 2.68 xERA. He’s allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his 6 starts and has shut down some of the better offenses in baseball already like the Orioles, Astros and Padres. The southpaw is coming off a career-best start against San Diego as he tossed 7.2 innings of 1-run ball and gave up just 4 hits while striking out 12. He is getting a ton of swings and misses against his fastball and curveball combination, and that shouldn’t stop on Friday against an inconsistent Brewers lineup. Milwaukee is absolutely in the running for the NL Central pennant, but the offense has been too little too late in so many games this season. I trust the Reds’ youthful lineup more right now, so I will back them for the underdog win.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins under 7.5 (+128)
Bailey Ober is my favorite underrated pitcher in baseball. I don’t know whether Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan put him in the shadows or if people just don’t know about him yet, but Ober is good. In 13 starts he has a 2.70 ERA paired with a 0.95 WHIP in 76.2 innings. Not only that, but he ranks in the 92nd percentile in walk rate, 90th percentile in whiff rate and 85th percentile in hard-hit rate. His last outing came against this Baltimore Orioles squad at Camden Yards, and Ober threw 7 scoreless innings and allowed just 2 hits along with 8 punchouts. Countering Ober is Cole Irvin, a former A’s pitcher who has looked pretty bad this season. However, his last start was the best of his season — and guess what; it was against the Twins. He threw 5.0 innings and allowed 1 run and 6 hits, and a big reason for that is Minnesota can’t hit lefties. Since June 1, the Twins have a 79 wRC+ against southpaws, which is the 5th-worst mark in baseball. I’m expecting a very low-scoring game in Minnesota, so I’m taking an alternate under to get the best odds.
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