It’s been a great week of baseball, and we’re not done yet. We have a massive 15-game slate on Friday starting with the Brewers-Cubs at 2:05 pm ET and we roll into the night with some great matchups — including Mets-Phillies, Blue Jays-Yankees and Astros-Braves. With such a big slate, I came up with a +1023 mega parlay. Let’s get into it!
Blue Jays ML (+108)
Guardians -1.5 (+150)
Astros ML (+116)
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For this parlay, we are going with one favorite on the run line and two underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Toronto Blue Jays ML (+108) over New York Yankees
For a team with over 70 wins, the Yankees sure aren’t playing like one. Before Thursday night’s game, they were 4-11 in August and in the midst of their worst offensive streak in months. Their team batting average has been hovering around .250 every month since Opening Day, but it has has plummeted to .220 in August. The Yankees avoided their 4th loss in a row on Wednesday night, but it took a walk-off grand slam to do it. New York will start Jameson Taillon, who has been less effective since the all-star break with a 1-1 record and a 4.26 ERA in 5 starts.
The Blue Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has been excellent the entire season with a 3.16 ERA. However, the ace has enjoyed pitching in America rather than Canada, as his ERA drops to 1.83 and his WHIP decreases to 1.02 when he starts on the road. As for his offense, the Blue Jays’ lineup has also been scuffling lately but — unlike the Yankees — they have still been scoring. I think Gausman and the Jays are getting the Yankees at a great time, so back an underdog win.
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+150) over Chicago White Sox
Lance Lynn was one of my favorite pitchers to back last season. He was incredible with a 2.69 ERA and a 2.72 xERA, but he has been a completely different pitcher in 2022. The veteran has a 5.62 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and has seen his xBA balloon from sub-2 to .255. Lynn has faced the Guardians twice this year, once at home and once on the road. In the start at home he threw 6.0 scoreless innings while allowing only 3 hits. In his start in Cleveland he was shelled for 8 runs and 9 hits in 4.0 innings. That has been a common theme for Lynn all season, as he has been decent at home but his ERA skyrockets to 7.46 on the road. And as you can guess, this game is in Cleveland.
It used to be very hard to predict which Triston McKenzie we would see on the mound from start to start, but he has finally settled in. Since the all-star break the 25-year-old has a 2.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP, but he has been even better in his last 2 starts — dominating the Astros and Blue Jays. He allowed 2 runs and 7 hits in his 14.2 innings against two of the best offenses in baseball, so I think McKenzie should be able to handle a White Sox team without Tim Anderson.
Houston Astros ML (+116) over Atlanta Braves
It’s not always the easiest decision to fade the Braves, but it’s near impossible to pass up the Astros at plus odds. Following the Yankees’ losing streak, the Astros leapfrogged them and are now the second favorites to win the World Series and the favorites to win the American League. Lance McCullers will play a vital role in Houston’s success for the rest of the season after rejoining the team last week. He threw 6.0 scoreless innings against the Athletics and surrendered just 2 hits, but he did walk 4 batters. There was some rust from McCullers — but not much.
I’m a fan of Kyle Wright, but I think he may get knocked around on Friday night. The 26-year-old has a 3.14 ERA paired with a 4.06 xERA and has been getting fairly lucky this season. His fastball has a lot of life to it, but it’s also been his biggest weakness; opponents have a .326 batting average and a .284 xBA against it. An Astros lineup with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez won’t let many flat fastballs go by without a healthy hack, so I would give the Astros the slight hitting advantage in this game. We might not see Houston at plus odds for much longer this season, so I’ll take it while I can.
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