Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the Tigers vs Marlins game in Miami with a decent potential payout at +750 odds. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Tigers vs Marlins Same Game Parlay.
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Marlins -1.5 (+136)
Luis Arraez to record 2+ hits (+155)
Bryan De La Cruz to record 2+ total bases (+100)
Tigers vs Marlins Same Game Parlay: +750
Miami Marlins -1.5 (+136) over Detroit Tigers
The Miami Marlins came out of the All-Star break sluggishly, and as a result they dropped 9 of their first 10 games back. It appears they’ve got the train back on the tracks as they’ve won back-to-back games including a 6-5 win over the Detroit Tigers yesterday evening. I’m backing the Marlins to win their third straight game this afternoon given the uncertainty surrounding the Tigers’ pitching approach. Detroit is starting the game with right-hander Beau Brieske, but it’s unknown whether he’s serving as an opener or if the Tigers are going with a full bullpen game and a pitch-by-committee approach. Brieske was a starting pitcher for Detroit last season but was moved to the pen this year and has spent much of his time on the injured list.
Since being activated on July 8, Brieske has made 5 appearances and has thrown a total of only 5.2 innings. If we look at his statistics from last season, the underlying metrics aren’t encouraging. Brieske was in the bottom 10th percentile in xBA strikeout rate, chase rate, xSLG, barrel percentage and whiff percentage. Brieske will likely go only an inning, but the Tigers’ bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA (4.22) and 18th in xFIP (4.26). The Marlins counter with 16-year vet, Johnny Cueto, who like Brieske was recently activated from the injured list. The Marlins have eased Cueto back into action and stretched him out to 81 pitches in his last outing. Cueto was phenomenal, tossing 6.0 innings while allowing 1 earned run on 2 hits, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts. I trust Cueto and the Marlins’ surging offense to pull away down the stretch.
Luis Arraez to record 2+ hits (+155)
Luis Arraez is undoubtedly the best pure hitter in baseball, and his ability to spray the ball all over the field is why he’s nicknamed the Sprinkler. Arraez has flirted with a .400 batting average all season and it hasn’t dipped below .371. In 98 games played, Arraez has already compiled 144 hits and 41 multi-hit games and has struck out only 23 times. The game of baseball has evolved to the point where most at-bats result in a home run or strikeout, but Arraez is the exception who has shown the value of base hits. He’s the modern-day Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, or Ichiro Suzuki in a game filled with Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge type power-hitters.
Arraez is hitting “only” .345 this month and in 21 games he has 8 multi-hit games, including 5 hits in his last 2 games and 10 in his last 5. Arraez will get at least 4 at-bats in this game, but maybe 5 if Detroit’s bullpen continues to struggle. It’s hard to argue against Arraez and nobody seems to have an answer on how to get him out. In 98 games played, Arraez has recorded 2+ hits 41.8% of the time. I like his chances to add a few more hits today.
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Bryan De La Cruz to record 2+ total bases (+100)
Bryan De La Cruz is having a fantastic third season in Miami with a .273/.317/.441 slash line. He leads the Marlins with 57 RBI, over Jorge Soler with 54. De La Cruz might not possess the same degree of power as Soler (43 extra-base hits), but 36 extra-base hits in nothing to scoff at. In July, De La Cruz is only hitting .244, but he’s slugging .488 with 10 extra-base hits in 82 at-bats.
Through 21 games in July, De La Cruz has 2+ total bases in 6 games, but he’s got them in bunches. In the last 2 games, he’s racked up 10 total bases and has homered in back-to-back games. Of his 20 hits in July, half have been for extra-bases, so I like the value on this pick. De La Cruz will likely see only one at-bat against Brieske, but Brieske’s .490 xSLG last season was one of the worst marks in baseball. I’m backing De La Cruz to find some gaps this afternoon and siding with 2+ total bases at plus odds.
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