Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And now, we’re diving into the Same Game Parlay market! This SGP previews the Tigers vs Red Sox game at Fenway Park with a decent payout at +475 odds.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Tigers vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay.
Tigers ML (+112)
Kerry Carpenter to record 2+ total bases (-110)
Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Tigers vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay: +475
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Tigers ML (+112)
The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are the first game on today’s slate as they wrap up their series in a rubber match at historic Fenway Park. The Tigers are 11 games under .500, but it hasn’t stopped them from competing, and they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, including a 3-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins. For the Red Sox it’s full steam ahead as they’re currently on the outside looking in at a wild-card berth. Boston was on a 3-game win streak before falling to the Tigers yesterday, and will look to right the ship this afternoon.
The Tigers are understandably underdogs on the road, but I believe there’s reason to back them. That comes down to the starting pitching matchup between Eduardo Rodriguez and Kutter Crawford. Rodriguez was one of the most sought-after starting pitchers at the trade deadline before he exercised his no-trade clause, preventing a move to the Dodgers. Looking at Rodriquez’s statistics, it’s not surprising that he was desired by a long list of ballclubs. Over 17 starts, the former Red Sox pitcher boasts a career-best 2.75 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Rodriguez went 7.0-scoreless innings in his last outing, and the lefty has put together quality starts in 3 of his last 4 appearances.
Kutter Crawford takes the ball for Boston, and while he’s been a reliable arm, he’s not on the same level as Rodriguez. Crawford owns a 3.80 ERA in 22 appearances and 14 starts, but he doesn’t eat a ton of innings. Crawford has gone a full 6.0 innings in only 2 of his 14 starts, and the Red Sox bullpen has been a huge issue. Boston’s bullpen has a 6.62 ERA and 5.59 FIP in August, and had to provide 4.1 innings of relief yesterday after a short outing from Brayan Bello. Advantage Detroit on the starting pitching front, as well as bullpen effectiveness.
Kerry Carpenter to record 2+ total bases (-110)
I like this pick for a variety of reasons, and I’ll start off by pointing out Kerry Carpenter’s season splits. Carpenter is hitting .287 against right-handed pitching this season and slugging an impressive .531. To put that into perspective, only 14 players across baseball have a higher slugging percentage against right-handed pitching than Carpenter. In August, Carpenter has torn the cover off the ball and has a slash line of .400/.442/.750. In his last 8 games, Carpenter has recorded 2+ bases in all but 1 game.
Last night, Carpenter went 2-for-4 with 2 home runs following a 1-for-3 performance with a home run the night before. Carpenter is seemingly seeing the ball extremely well and he’s struck out just 5 times in the month while recording 6 multi-hit games. I like Carpenter to stay hot at the plate and he’ll have a favorable matchup with right-hander Kutter Crawford making the start for Boston.
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Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Eduardo Rodriguez is having a remarkable season in Detroit and has made the leap from an above-average starter to an elite arm at the top of a rotation. Rodriguez’s 2.75 ERA is tied with Gerrit Cole and it’s a huge improvement from the 4.74 ERA he posted in 2021 and the 4.05 ERA last season through 17 starts. Nearly every underlying metric for Rodriguez is an improvement from last season, but most important of all is his strikeout rate going from 18.4% last season to 25.0% this year.
The strikeout total of 5.5 is a number that Rodriguez has surpassed in 9 of his 17 starts, and 7 of his last 11 outings. Rodriguez has tremendous command as well, which typically allows him to go deeper into games, thus giving him more opportunities to add to his strikeout total. I’d expect Rodriguez to at least go 6.0 innings this afternoon, and I like his chances to give us 1 punchout per inning. I’m riding the hot hand in Rodriquez and siding with the over on his strikeout prop.
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