Kyle Lupas
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Here at Pickswise, we provide MLB coverage with YRFI/NRFI picks, player props, mega parlays and so much more. And today we’re adding a Same Game Parlay to the mix. We’re taking a deeper look into the Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins matchup, which you can catch on Apple TV+ at 8:10 pm ET.
This parlay consists of 3 legs with a generous +458 payout and primarily focuses on offensive production. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for today’s slate. But for now, let’s break down each leg of this Guardians vs Twins Same Game Parlay.
Over 8.5 runs (-105)
Jose Ramirez to record 2+ total bases (-115)
Josh Naylor to record an RBI (+140)
Guardians vs Twins Same Game Parlay odds: +458
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Over 8.5 runs (-105)
The Guardians and Twins combined for 13 runs in their game yesterday and I’m expecting some of those runs to carry over into Friday’s game. Aaron Civale takes the ball for the Guardians but it will be only his third start of the season since returning from a left oblique strain. His rehab stint didn’t go great either, as he pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 11.0 innings of work. Since returning to Cleveland, Civale tossed a 7.0-inning shutout followed by a 4 spot on 9 hits across 5.2 innings. His 4.45 xERA suggests there’s some regression in his future and he has struck out only 16.0% of his batters to this point. I think the Twins could capitalize with a few early runs.
The Twins counter with Bailey Ober, who has settled in and become an important piece to this starting rotation. Now in his third season, Ober has improved each year and boasts a 2.68 ERA through his first 7 outings. However, he has his work cut out for him tonight with the middle of this Guardians’ lineup. Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez have feasted on right-handed pitching this season and Ober has struggled to put lefties away. Against right-handed batters, Ober’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is at 9.00, but drops to 2.11 against left-handed batters. Like Civale, Ober’s underlying metrics suggest regression as well, as his 3.66 xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. I’ll back the over at its current number.
Jose Ramirez to record 2+ total bases (-115)
Jose Ramirez has feasted upon right-handed pitching this season. Over the course of his career, Ramirez’ numbers as a switch hitter have been almost identical from both sides of the plate, batting .278 from the left side and .279 from the right. However, this season he’s been much better from the left side as he’s batting .329 in comparison to .167 from the right. Overall, Ramirez has been extremely consistent and continues to confirm himself as one of the best players in the game.
In 53 games played, Ramirez has recorded 2+ total bases 26 times, including 4 of his last 6 games. Ramirez is on a 7-game hitting streak and hitting .333 with 3 multi-hit games over that span. In addition to that, Ramirez has been extremely aggressive at the plate and hasn’t walked in his last 11 games. Ober is typically around the zone and has a career 5.4% walk rate. I’d expect Ramirez to be aggressive early in counts and continue to torch right-handed pitching. This seems to be a great matchup for Ramirez and I’m backing him to record 2+ total bases tonight.
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Josh Naylor to record an RBI (+140)
Some players love to hit with runners in scoring position, and Josh Naylor has thrived in those situations. Naylor is tied with Randy Arozarena for 5th in the American League with 40 RBIs and drove in 25 runs in 23 games in May. Yesterday, Naylor was scratched from the lineup with a sore wrist but hopes to return to the lineup today. Like Ramirez, Naylor has crushed right-handed pitching and is hitting .272 with 34 of his 40 RBIs coming against righties.
With runners in scoring position, Naylor is hitting .293 and has driven in 8 runs over his last 2 games. I think Naylor will get some opportunities to drive in some runs tonight, and he was a much better hitter in May than he was to begin the season. At +140 odds, this seems like a very generous price given his recent production. His injury will be calculated into these odds but I’ll take a chance with Naylor given the fact Ramirez bats ahead of him and has reached base at a high clip of late. Look for Naylor to have some opportunities throughout this game and record another RBI.
You can also read today’s MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
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