Mark Lammey
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Let’s try to make it 3 nights in a row cashing a same game parlay after hitting with the Padres/Nationals last night and the Field of Dreams game the night before. The Blue Jays were unable to take advantage of their matchup last night and get the series-opening win against the Guardians. They had been off since Tuesday, and faced a starter in Cal Quantrill who struggles on the road. That was an inexcusable loss for a team that is battling for an AL wild-card spot. Meanwhile, Cleveland will be looking to take Saturday’s game as they are in the midst of a heated AL Central race. They’ll also be on more even footing with Toronto in terms of both rest and starters on the mound. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Guardians ML (+105)
Under 8.5 total runs (-120)
Triston McKenzie 4+ strikeouts (-340)
Parlay odds: +340
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cleveland Guardians ML (+105) over Toronto Blue Jays
Home-field advantage is always a factor for any team; however, it’s been even greater for the Blue Jays this season. Canadian vaccination restrictions have forced several teams to take on the Jays while missing several key players. Despite that, Toronto has struggled in those situations and lost as favorites of greater than -300 to teams such as the Tigers and Royals. Those are the weakest teams in the AL Central, and some of the worst overall. This series is against a much more formidable Guardians, who dominated in last night’s win. They also aren’t missing 10 players like the Royals. Instead, they are without just one reliever. That is still a blow to Cleveland, as they rely on their bullpen, but they still have an all-star closer in Emmanuel Clase.
It’s also likely that he won’t have too much stress on him with Triston McKenzie getting the start. He’s been great as of late, and pitched 8.0 full innings in his most recent start. McKenzie has also led the Guardians to some huge wins. One was against another AL East team in the Yankees, and his most recent was the most impressive. That 8.0-inning performance was against the American League-best Astros, in which he allowed just 2 hits and no runs. If McKenzie and the Guardians can take down the best AL teams behind his starts, they can handle a Jays team that has proved to be inconsistent at home.
Under 8.5 total runs (-120)
For Cleveland to pull off this upset, they’re going to need to do so in low-scoring fashion. They have an incredible individual hitter in Jose Ramirez, but they do not have the depth to rely on a performance like last night’s in back-to-back games. While that may sound like bad news for the Guardians, they have proved they are more than capable of doing so. Those big wins behind McKenzie’s starts are exactly what they need. They took down the Yankees 2-0 and the Astros 1-0. Between those games was a 4-0 win against the Tigers.
The win against New York also marked the beginning of a great stretch for McKenzie. He went on to pitch 21 straight scoreless innings before allowing just a single run 4 starts later. With the Guardians starter doing his job, Ramirez and company shouldn’t need to produce much to support him. They didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline to bolster their roster, making it less likely for them to have an offensive explosion against Mitch White. The former Dodger is used to facing the great hitters in the NL West, so he should do his part in keeping this game low-scoring.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Triston McKenzie 4+ strikeouts (-340)
This is an interesting prop. McKenzie generated a lot of hype coming into his second season as a strikeout pitcher. He’s been living up to that hype recently, recording 8 and 7 strikeouts in his last 2 starts. His last start prior to the all-star break was an incredible 12-strikeout performance, and he fanned 7 Yankees prior to that. The argument against this prop and the reason the alternate total isn’t even higher is the Jays lineup.
It’s true that they’ve struck out the 5th-fewest times in the league. However, that is due to their ability to hit lefties. They have the absolute least amount of strikeouts against left-handed pitching, bringing their overall number down compared to others. On the other hand, they’ve struck out the 8th-most against righties. That’s what they’ll see with McKenzie. Let’s trust the youngster on a hot streak with a 0.96 WHIP.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+910 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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