Mark Lammey
Show Bio
These teams kicked off their weekend series with an afternoon game yesterday. They may not be division rivals, but this is still an important series for both. They’re both battling for postseason positioning, potentially with each other. The Mariners are focused on an AL wild-card spot with the Astros running away with the AL West. Cleveland still has a chance to win the AL Central, but could end up fighting with Seattle for one of those wild-card spots. After such a close game yesterday, let’s make tonight’s matchup a profitable one. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Guardians ML (-110)
Under 9.5 total runs (-350)
JP Crawford to record a hit (-175)
Parlay odds: +380
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cleveland Guardians ML (-110) over Seattle Mariners
The Guardians lost yesterday’s series opener, but they have a great opportunity to bounce back strongly tonight. That game was an afternoon game just hours after wrapping up their series against the Padres. They should now be settled in and able to extend their lead in the AL Central. Cleveland looked great in their 2-game set against San Diego, winning both games, including a 7-0 shutout to finish it off. They should be looking for a similar performance behind ace Shane Bieber. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs for 5 straight starts, and in 6 of his last 7.
That stretch started with a 1-run complete game against the division-rival White Sox. That helped them jump to the division lead, and he’s even helped take down the league-best Dodgers this season. Bieber has also pitched at least 6.0 innings in each of those 7 starts, increasing the effectiveness of the league’s 6th-best bullpen. They should receive enough run support from Jose Ramirez and company this time around against Mariners starter Logan Gilbert. He was much stronger earlier in the season, but has tailed off a bit recently. Seattle has lost each of his last 3 starts, and he’s allowed 18 runs over his last 4 starts. The Mariners even lost to the American League-worst A’s his last time on the mound, so the Guardians can come out on top of this rather evenly matched game.
Under 9.5 total runs (-350)
It shouldn’t be too surprising that this is the lowest total on the board. Yesterday quickly proved that to be justified, as there wasn’t a run scored after the 1st inning. It ended with just 4 total runs, and these teams are no strangers to such low-scoring games. The Guardians’ last 4 games have finished with 7 or fewer runs, and we’re even playing it safe with the alternate total. It’s helped cash our plays before, and our last leg will help boost our odds for a great payout. Cleveland has been such a great team for unders due such a strong relief staff.
Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase got the save in this season’s all-star game, and their bullpen shouldn’t have to do much tonight. Even if Bieber doesn’t have another complete game, he has proved he can pitch deep into games in every start. Although Gilbert hasn’t looked as strong recently, it’s not as if he is in Patrick Corbin territory. He’s had back-to-back starts against the AL-best Astros that finished with just 6 and 4 total runs. His last 2 starts were against divisional opponents, also staying under this total. Even if tonight isn’t quite as low-scoring as yesterday’s game we have plenty of wiggle room.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
JP Crawford to record a hit (-175)
Targeting a Mariners hitter in this situation may seem strange, but we’re going to break down why it’s warranted. Most of the attention on the Mariners has been focused on rookie Julio Rodriguez, especially since the all-star break. While he may be the future face of the franchise, that doesn’t take away from the fact that JP Crawford has been one of the most consistent contact hitters for this franchise. His 169 hits were the 7th-most in the AL last season. He’s at 107 in 113 this season, just under a hit per game.
Crawford is also trustworthy for this prop, as he rarely strikes out. For some perspective, Rodriguez has struck out 123 times, while Crawford has done so just 57 times in 5 more games played. All of that is without mentioning the primary focus of targeting him tonight specifically. He’s had Bieber’s number. Crawford is 4-for-6 against him with 3 RBI. Using this specific matchup on a hitter opposite the team we’re predicting to win the game greatly boosts our odds. All we need is for him to put one in play, so count on the shortstop to come through.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1136 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.
