Mark Lammey
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These AL Central rivals are in the midst of a crucial series. They’re battling for the top spot of the division, and things couldn’t be much closer. After last night’s win, the Guardians now have a 2.5-game lead over the Twins and are 1.5 games up on the White Sox. Winning the division is likely the only way any of those teams will make the postseason. With the possibility this game decides these teams’ fate, let’s break it down. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Guardians ML (-125)
Over 5.5 total runs (-270)
Jose Ramirez 2+ total bases (+130)
Parlay odds: +340
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cleveland Guardians ML (-125) over Minnesota Twins
We had a same game parlay for the opener of this series last night in which we avoided taking a side. However, tonight’s matchup provides much more confidence in backing the Guardians. Several factors support that, including injuries and the starters on the mound. First and foremost, the Twins are without Byron Buxton, one of the AL leaders in home runs. They’re also without Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler isn’t 100% healthy with a hip issue. That means a depleted lineup facing a young rising star in Triston McKenzie.
Admittedly, he didn’t enjoy his starts against the Twins this season. They were more than 2 months ago, and he’s looked strong ever since. After those starts, he went 3 straight outings while not allowing a single run. He’s also helped the team upset both the Yankees and Astros in shutout fashion. That’s quite the opposite experience Twins starter Chris Archer has had against the Guardians. He has a no-decision against them this season, and he should consider that a win. Prior to that, Archer lost all 7 of his career starts against Cleveland. Therefore, he’s 0-7 with a 5.53 ERA against them. With the Guardians having the more complete lineup and significantly better bullpen, they can take the second game of the series.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins
Over 5.5 total runs (-270)
There was a decision to be made between taking the Guardians on the run line and omitting this leg, or going with the money line and including an alternate total. We’re going to add in the total due to how close many of the games between these teams have been this season. McKenzie leading the team to an 11-10 over the Twins earlier in the year supports both that and the over. Last night demonstrated yet another close, high-scoring game.
Archer’s loss to Cleveland was a 5-3 game, but still rather close for comfort in terms of the run line. Similarly, the Guardians have beaten the Twins by scores of 3-2, 7-6 twice, and 6-5 this season. Therefore, another close game may be in store. We certainly don’t need many runs to get over this number. McKenzie allowed 6 and 7 runs to the Twins, and Archer has historically been terrible against Cleveland. Feel free to use the Guardians run line instead, but this combination seems to be the safer route.
Jose Ramirez 2+ total bases (+130)
Let’s wrap things up with a prop that’s been great for us throughout the season. It’s the most obvious play in this matchup, but Jose Ramirez is an absolute stud. His 39 doubles are the most in the AL, and his 265 total bases are tied for the 2nd-most. He’s even closing in on 30 home runs on the year. Ramirez had just a single last night, but he should be expected to have a much bigger night. That’s due to his history against Archer. He’s 6-for-14 against him, with 2 doubles and a home run. That gives him an incredible .786 slugging percentage when facing Archer. With that type of efficiency, there’s no reason to doubt Ramirez in this matchup.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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