Caleb Wilfinger
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The Cincinnati Reds are one of the hottest teams in the National League and they’ll take on the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital on Monday. This is the first game of a 4-game set between the Reds and Nationals in what should be an exciting series in Washington, DC.
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Reds -1.5 (+132)
Over 10 (-105)
Luke Weaver under 3.5 strikeouts (-138)
Same Game Parlay odds: +588
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That appears to be the case here, as Luke Weaver striking out 3 or fewer batters for the Reds doesn’t go with a Cincinnati -1.5 run line bet on paper.
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+132) over Washington Nationals
At this point, the secret has been out about the Reds for a while now. Cincinnati has turned heads this season and after a terrific June, the Reds have a very real shot at winning the NL Central. If they are going to do so, they have to beat the lesser teams on their schedule, including the Nationals. Washington has been fantastic against the spread this season, with a 52-32 ATS mark to this point, including a record of 26-14 on the road. The Reds are 6-4 in their last 10 games with 2 of those losses coming against a stellar Braves team, so they are very close to being 8-2 in that stretch. Prior to that 10-game stretch, Cincinnati was 13-2 in the previous 15 games, so the Reds are still the more reliable pick to notch a convincing win in this matchup until proven otherwise.
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Over 10 (-105)
The over has been very prominent in games involving the Reds this season, as Cincinnati is 49-34 to the over in 2023, including a mark of 24-16 away from home. Part of what has carried the Reds over their recent run of good form has been their offense, as they’ve scored the 7th-most runs in baseball this season. However, Cincinnati also allowed the 4th-most runs as well, while the Nationals have surrendered the 5th-most runs on the season. That kind of volatility is a good recipe for an over, even in a game with this double-digit total. Although Washington’s offensive metrics are nothing to write home about, the glaring lack of pitching in this game makes playing the over awfully appealing. Games involving the Reds have gone over this number in 8 of their last 11 contests, and I expect a similar result today.
You can also check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Luke Weaver under 3.5 strikeouts (-138)
It’s no secret that Luke Weaver hasn’t been missing bats in 2023. The Reds right-hander is in the bottom 20th percentile of all qualified starters in strikeout percentage, while also ranking in the 14th percentile in whiff rate and chase rate on the season. With an ERA of 6.96, plus wOBA and max-exit velocity metrics that rank in the bottom 5 percentile of all starters, Weaver hasn’t been putting many hitters away this season. The 29-year-old has struck out 3 or fewer batters in each of his last 4 outings and I expect him to go under this number once again.
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