Caleb Wilfinger
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The Cincinnati Reds are one of the hottest teams in the National League and they’ll take on the Milwaukee Brewers in an important NL Central matchup on Saturday. This is the second game of a 3-game set between the Reds and Brewers in what has already been an exciting series in Milwaukee.
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Brewers -1.5 (+150)
Over 9.5 (-105)
Luke Weaver under 4.5 strikeouts (-154)
Same Game Parlay odds: +663
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That isn’t the case here, as Luke Weaver striking out 4 or fewer batters for the Reds correlates with a Brewers win.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+150)
Despite how hot the Reds have been over the last month, the Brew Crew are the only way I can look in this matchup. Milwaukee just seems to have Cincinnati’s number, having won 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Reds this season. Cincinnati’s offense has cooled off a bit, averaging only 3.20 runs per game over its last 10 contests. Milwaukee’s lineup has been middling this season, but should see success against Luke Weaver, who is in the bottom 10% of the league in xBA, xSLG, and WOBA. With the Reds averaging less than 4 runs per game against the Brewers, plus the Brew Crew netting over 5 runs per game against Cincinnati this season, Milwaukee looks the right side in Saturday’s matchup.
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Over 9.5 (-105)
I am surprised the Reds have given Weaver such a long leash considering how poor his metrics have been this season, but they have won each of his last 7 starts, mostly by outscoring their opponents. The Brewers will oppose him with Colin Rea, who has a 4.40 ERA through 14 starts and is around the MLB average in xBA, xSLG and WOBA.
Cincinnati is averaging 5.03 runs per game, and the Reds have a .258 BA, .418 SLG and a .331 WOBA. Led by rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz, they are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have hit the over in 10 of their last 14 games. The Brewers are no slouches on offense either, as they average 5.50 runs per game in their last 10 meetings against the Reds. Milwaukee has also hit the over in 7 of their last 8 games and 4 of their last 5 at home. With these pitchers and team history, I like the over in this game.
You can also check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Luke Weaver under 4.5 strikeouts (-154)
It’s no secret that Weaver hasn’t been missing bats this season, regardless of the opponent. The right-hander is in the bottom 20th percentile of all qualified starters in strikeout percentage, while also ranking in the bottom 14th percentile in whiff rate and chase rate for the campaign. With an ERA of 6.72, plus wOBA and maximum exit velocity metrics that rank in the bottom 5 percentile of all pitchers in 2023, Weaver hasn’t been putting many hitters away this season. The 29-year-old has struck out 4 or fewer batters in each of his last 6 outings and I expect him to go under this number once again.
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