Mark Lammey
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The Cubs and Pirates are finishing off their long 4-game series with an early afternoon game on Thursday. They’ve taken turns beating up on each other throughout the week. After the Pirates dominated the first 2 games, the Cubs answered with a strong performance last night. They’ll be wrapping things up with a battle of lefties on the mound. Chicago’s Justin Steele and Pittsburgh’s Jose Quintana have already faced today’s opposition this season, providing plenty of prior results to optimize a way to play today’s matchup. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Cubs ML (-116)
Cubs – 1st 5 innings ML (+115)
Willson Contreras 2+ total bases (+115)
Parlay odds: +367
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Cubs ML (-116)
Despite their poor start to this series, the Cubs should be able to continue last night’s success to secure a series split. Neither Steele nor Quintana will be winning the NL Cy Young, but Steele has been pitching better, especially recently. He was able to help take down the Braves in his last start, just a day after the Cubs had ended Atlanta’s 14-game winning streak. His 2 starts prior were even more impressive. He took on some great lineups in the Padres and Cardinals, and allowed only a single run to each while also pitching a full 7.0 innings in both starts. Not only has looked solid this month, his expected numbers imply there should be more improvements.
Steele has a better 3.67 expected ERA in comparison to his 4.27 actual ERA. That is quite the opposite situation with Pittsburgh’s Jose Quintana. His 4.55 expected ERA is worse than his 3.66 actual ERA. While it can be argued that all that matters is what actually happens, that is still not promising for the Pirates. The team has lost his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 6 outings. Quintana actually faced the same teams as Steele in the Braves, Padres and Cardinals, and lost each one of them. There is so much focus on the starting pitching matchup in this game as both teams have struggled to score, and both have poor relievers. With Steele’s ability to pitch more effectively and deeper into the game, Chicago can salvage this series with a win.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Cubs – 1st 5 innings ML (+115)
The Cubs came through with this same leg of yesterday’s same game parlay, and should be able to do so again today. It goes right along with the fact that Quintana is the weaker of the 2 lefties getting the start today. Not only has he struggled overall this season, he hasn’t been able to to make it 5.0 innings in 2 of his last 4 starts. That includes one against the Tigers, the lowest-scoring team in the league. Even when he did make it a full 5.0 innings in the following start, the Pirates were still losing at that point. As for Steele, the Cubs were beating a red-hot Braves team 4-2 by the end of 5 frames. Chicago may not get another 10 runs in the first 5 innings like they did last night, but they should still find themselves with a lead.
Willson Contreras 2+ total bases (+115)
After Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ had big nights last night, it’s time for Willson Contreras to take over this afternoon. Despite struggling in this series, he’s still ahead of Wisdom and tied with Happ for the most total bases on the team. He had no issues with this prop in the last 2 series, which were against more formidable opponents in the Braves and Padres. That includes a 10-total base performance against San Diego’s Sean Manaea. He’s been able to rack up the bases with both contact and power, having 13 doubles, a triple and 12 home runs. Contreras has also been the most efficient of the big 3 hitters, having played fewer games than both Wisdom and Happ. That has him with a .505 slugging percentage, the highest on the team, and should help him prove to be better than he has so far this week.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1075 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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